ISLAMABAD

A new scientific report has found that climate change intensified the heavy monsoon rains that triggered deadly floods across Pakistan this summer, compounding the impact on highly vulnerable urban communities.

Since June 26, at least 303 people — including 142 children — have died due to rain-related incidents, according to Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). Most of the fatalities resulted from collapsing homes in informal settlements built from mud and rice husk in flood-prone areas near riverbanks and drainage basins.

The study, conducted by the World Weather Attribution group — an academic collaboration focused on extreme weather events — examined how human-caused climate change altered the intensity and frequency of rainfall in the country.

The floods have devastated parts of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, with Rawalpindi, Lahore, Peshawar and Faisalabad among the worst-hit cities.

On July 17, Rawalpindi received 230 millimeters (9 inches) of rainfall in less than 24 hours, overwhelming drainage systems and forcing mass evacuations.

According to the NDMA, 727 people — including 242 children — were injured, while 1,693 homes, 449 kilometers (279 miles) of roads and 105 bridges were damaged. Some 428 livestock also perished.

To determine how much human-driven global warming altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme rainfall, scientists from Pakistan, Sweden, Denmark, the UK and the US used peer-reviewed methods in an event attribution study.

The report said the 30-day maximum rainfall over the affected region is now approximately 22% more intense than it would have been without the 1.3C of warming caused by fossil fuel burning and deforestation.

“Historical trends associated with global warming in observational datasets show the 30-day maximum rainfall over the study region is now approximately 22% more intense than it would have been in a climate that had not warmed by 1.3°C, due to the burning of fossil fuels, and, to a smaller extent, deforestation,” it said.

The study also warned that urbanization, weak building codes and deforestation have increased the exposure of cities to climate-related disasters.

Following the 2022 floods, Pakistan estimated that $16.3 billion was required for resilient recovery and reconstruction. Donors pledged more than $8.5 billion — mostly as loans — while the government committed to cover the remaining costs. However, the country still faces a $152 billion climate adaptation gap through 2030.

Experts involved in the study called for increased investment in nature-based solutions such as reforestation and wetland restoration, stronger building regulations and early warning systems to reduce future losses. The report noted that in a warmer world, such disasters are expected to become more frequent and more destructive.