Alternative oil export routes that have gained prominence amid security risks in the Strait of Hormuz are facing mounting risks as security concerns spread to the Red Sea and around Bab el-Mandeb, a key maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, connects production centers in the east of the country with the port of Yanbu on its western coast, allowing crude oil to reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the security of shipments beyond Yanbu remains dependent on maritime transport.
While Europe-bound crude can be shipped through the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline, tankers heading to Asia must pass through Bab el-Mandeb before entering the Indian Ocean.
Attacks on commercial vessels by Yemen's Houthis and rising security risks around Bab el-Mandeb have renewed attention on the maritime leg of the Petroline-Yanbu export corridor.
Commodities data firm Kpler said the number of commodity vessels passing through Bab el-Mandeb fell to 11 on July 26, the lowest daily level in recent months.
- Importance of Yanbu and Petroline
Saudi Aramco's Yanbu South Terminal, which became operational in 2018, added 3 million barrels per day to Saudi Arabia's crude oil export capacity on its western coast.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, Petroline has a nominal capacity of 5 million barrels per day and can temporarily transport up to 7 million barrels per day following modifications made in 2019.
However, this capacity does not mean that the same volume of crude can be delivered uninterruptedly to global markets.
Loading capacity at Yanbu, tanker availability, port operations and security conditions in the Red Sea determine the actual volume that can be exported.
Security risks in the Red Sea have also brought renewed attention to Egypt's SUMED pipeline, which has a daily capacity of 2.5 million barrels.
The pipeline carries crude oil from the Ain Sokhna terminal on the Red Sea coast to the Sidi Kerir terminal on the Mediterranean coast.
However, both the SUMED and Suez options still require tankers to use the northern Red Sea, meaning these routes do not fully eliminate security risks in the region.
- Asia faces greater vulnerability
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), around 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 80% of that volume heading to Asian markets.
Therefore, even if a possible disruption in Hormuz is partly offset through Petroline, continued shipments to Asia would remain dependent on safe passage through Bab el-Mandeb.
A prolonged disruption could extend delivery times and increase freight and insurance costs.
The IEA estimates that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day of available export capacity through pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
This capacity would not be sufficient to fully replace the total volume of oil transported through Hormuz.
- 'Multiple export options are needed'
Jamie Ingram, managing editor at MEES, said security risks in the Red Sea could complicate Saudi Arabia's alternative oil export operations.
Ingram said shipments could be redirected north through the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline, although this would increase voyage times and transportation costs.
He said Petroline continues to play a critical role in transporting regional oil, adding that the main priority in energy security is ensuring uninterrupted supplies to customers.
"Providing reliable supplies to customers now requires having multiple export options. More diversified pipeline routes will be developed in the coming years," Ingram said.
He added that Asia remains the main market for Middle Eastern producers and that Asian importers could therefore be affected more than European buyers by possible disruptions in the region.
By Gokce Kucuk Topbas
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
