ANKARA
U.S. employment rose in July, the country’s Labor Department reported Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls added 215,000 jobs, close to analyst consensus estimates of 220,000.
In June, nonfarm payrolls added 223,000, down from the strong number posted in May of 280,000.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent.
Job gains occurred in retail trade, health care, professional and technical services plus financial activities, the report said. The labor participation rate was unchanged at 62.6 percent.
Economists see further improvement around the bend for the U.S. economy, and that could cause the Fed to move on interest rates in September.
"This leaves the door wide open to a September liftoff, wrote Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, in a note published on July 29.
U.S. GDP grew 2.3 percent and consumer spending was up 2.9 percent in the second quarter. "This does not show evidence of robust growth," complained economists Thomas Cooley and Peter Rupert in a note published on July 30.
"But the next few months should see a significant easing of post-crisis blues," predicts Charles Dumas, an economist with Lombard Street Research, in a note published on Tuesday.
"It was consumers not spending their oil price windfall gain, while producers responded quickly to near-term pain, that softened growth," he explained
"The upward shift of personal savings by 0.25 percent of disposable income in the first quarter cut more than 2 percent from the real GDP growth rate in that quarter," Dumas said. As cautious consumer spending hurt GDP growth, job creation suffered as well.
"Prospectively, the outlook for labor income is nominal growth of 4.5 to 5 percent (about half each for jobs and wage growth). With the savings rate falling, nominal consumer spending could be rising at 5.5 to 6 percent, meaning real gains of 44.5 percent, given core inflation in the 1.25 to 1.5 percent region," Dumas said.
More income for labor translates into increased consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of GDP in the U.S.
Both Feroli and Dumas see consumers spending more in the remaining summer months, and the push that will give to the economy might be enough to shove the Fed into a September interest rate rise.
