ISTANBUL

Geopolitical tensions, shifting supply estimates, and extreme weather conditions resulted in mixed commodity prices in February, while precious metals and grains came on top as the biggest winners.

Global conflicts and safe-haven demand boost prices for precious metals, energy, and grains, while Chinese economic uncertainty and agricultural surpluses weigh heavily on base metals and soft commodities such as cocoa, coffee, and sugar, while rice diverges from other grains.

Precious metals rallied last month, driven by US–Iran tensions, the US Supreme Court’s striking of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and falling US 10-Year Bond yields.

Gold rose 8.9% to close February at $5,280 per ounce, extending gains for a seventh consecutive month -- marking a first in 53 years.

Investors turned to the safe-haven commodity amid geopolitical tensions, developments in US trade policy, and ongoing concerns over tech and artificial intelligence (AI) stock overvaluations, while the end of the Chinese New Year holiday contributed to the rise in gold.

Chipmaker Nvidia’s financial results also weakened US Dollar demand and boosted the demand for gold due to strengthening risk appetite.

Silver jumped 12.6% due to safe-haven appeal and declining silver stocks on the COMEX.

Platinum rose 8.5% amid supply constraints and its heavy use in hydrogen energy production, as well as rising jewelry and industrial sector demands, while palladium climbed 4.2%

Base metals were mixed due to low trading volumes during the Chinese New Year. Copper increased 1.1%, led by structural demand from renewable energy and data centers and Indonesia’s decision to reduce the production quota of the country’s largest mine.

At the same time, nickel climbed 0.8%, while lead and zinc fell 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, with aluminum remaining flat.

In February, Brent crude oil rose 4.8% amid escalating US–Iran and Russia–Ukraine geopolitical risks, compounded by lower-than-expected OECD stockpiles, while natural gas plunged 22.4% on the New York Mercantile Exchange as a result of lower winter demand expectations.

Grains rallied on weather conditions and strong exports.

Soybeans surged 10% as rising crude oil prices boosted demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, while the US Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit a proposal to the White House for new biofuel blending volumes.

Wheat rose 9.9% due to freezing temperatures in the US threatening production and exports exceeding expectations.

Corn increased 4.7% due to strong US exports and expectations of a corn planting decline this spring, with lower corn harvest forecasts for South Africa in 2026 contributing to the rise.

Rice fell 5.8% over increased global rice production estimates.

At the same time, soft commodities suffered heavy losses due to supply surpluses saturating commodity markets.

Cocoa plummeted 30.7% per ton, while coffee fell 15.5% per pound due to an expected record harvest in Brazil easing previous supply fears. Sugar declined 2.2% to $1.334 per pound — its lowest since October 2020 — due to weakening demand and rising stocks among producers such as the Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Cotton diverged among soft commodities, rising 3.5%

*Writing by Emir Yildirim