Global markets expect less tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions in H2

ISTANBUL

Global markets expect a reduction in tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions in the second half of the year, with an increased shift towards more risky assets, an expert told Anadolu.

Much of the uncertainties were caused by the US’ protectionist trade in the first six months of the year, as well as central banks’ changing forecasts and geopolitical tensions.

Investor risk appetite was damaged by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and the Fed’s easing cycle, followed by tensions in the Middle East and tariff negotiations between China and the US.

Investors opted for safe haven assets, such as gold, whose ounce price saw its historic high at $3,500 in this period, but easing tensions and Washington’s newfound willingness to compromise on tariffs generate some optimism in global markets, as we enter the second half of the year.

Tonguc Erbas, general manager of Türkiye-based financial services firm Ahlatci Portfoy, said that the US has the largest gold reserves and the high gold prices show the reserve value in terms of debt, which is why Trump took swift action with demands.

“He took steps on tariffs, he had demands on geographical regions, and he very quickly withdrew after high tension — we saw a similar approach to the Israel–Iran conflict,” he said.

Erbas said that the US’ recent policies have been aimed at weakening the US dollar in global markets, seeing its fastest decline in the first six months of the year compared to the last 50 years.

“I think the US will reach a middle ground agreement on tariffs with countries and I think they have a medium-term plan to eliminate geopolitical risks,” he said.

Erbas stated that Trump may not want to attempt replacing the Fed chair yet despite expecting a rate cut.

“I think the Fed will cut rates in September and there will be two rate cuts this year,” he said. “The Fed wants to monitor the impact of tariffs, so the Fed may resume rate cuts with the expectation that Trump will continue a more moderate strategy on tariffs.”

He noted that the US 10-Year Bond could fall below 4% again at the end of this year, reaching 3.85% with these developments.

Erbas highlighted that silver will be more promising in the second half of the year.

“If major central banks cut their rates and growth increases, unlike the flat movement in the past years, silver can both become a safe haven alternative and a product with a price advantage,” he said. “Gold may remain flat for a while and oil and oil-based products or investments may remain within a price band until the end of the year.”

He emphasized that markets are through almost all the negative developments that could occur in the first half of the year and they will be in a better place towards the end of the year.

Erbas mentioned that Türkiye’s Central Bank will announce its rate decision on July 24, expecting a 350-basis-point cut, but the bank “does not want to surprise the market, so it may cut 250 basis points instead,” and the year-end interest rate is expected to be around 35%.

He added that the cooling of the global economy poses a difficult situation for balancing amid downward revisions of year-end growth estimates.

“Higher growth rate revisions in global markets may come to the fore if tariffs and the Fed’s policy become clearer in the next month or two but I don’t think a global slowdown will affect Türkiye significantly,” he said.