ISTANBUL

Commodity prices continued their record momentum into 2026 as expectations of a global economic recovery and potential rate cuts supported markets, while geopolitical risks, supply concerns and trade tensions carried last year’s strength into January.

Gold rose 12.4% in January, marking its best monthly performance since November 2009. Silver gained 17.2%, platinum 6.2%, and palladium 7% over the same period.

Gold reached $5,598.09 per ounce, silver climbed to $121.7, platinum to $2,923.3, and palladium to $2,168.6 per ounce, its highest level since October 2022.

Geopolitical tensions, including US plans regarding Greenland and strains between Washington and Europe, as well as uncertainty over Federal Reserve rate cuts, continued to support gold prices.

Trade uncertainties linked to US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies and concerns about the Fed’s independence also supported silver prices.

Silver’s widespread use in solar panels kept demand strong, while concerns that mined output may not meet demand added to price pressures.

Supply issues were also prominent in platinum. Declining mining activity in South Africa, one of the largest producers, due to energy shortages and floods, led to the decline in platinum supply, while the rising auto industry, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, pushed up the demand for both platinum and palladium.

Among base metals, copper rose 5% to $6.6 per pound amid supply concerns and ongoing global infrastructure investment. Strong metal flows to the US also fueled concerns about tighter supply in Asia and Europe.

Copper was further supported by recovery expectations and rate cut forecasts, as well as concerns that tariff-related shipments to the US could disrupt supply elsewhere. A strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile added to supply worries.

Aluminum rose 5.7% per pound on expectations of growth and recovery in China, where demand remains strong in automotive and home appliance sectors.

China's economy is expected to continue internal stimulus measures this year, leading to a revival in domestic demand.

Tariff concerns, sanctions on Russia and supply-side risks also supported prices.

Nickel gained 5.2% per pound due to rising production risks in Indonesia despite global oversupply. Strong demand in batteries and stainless steel, along with Chinese investment in local metal markets, supported prices.

In the energy group, Brent crude surged 14.5% per barrel amid geopolitical tensions. Natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 18.1% to $7.8270, its highest level since September 2022, as temperatures remained well below seasonal norms across much of the northern hemisphere.

In agricultural commodities, wheat rose 6.1% per bushel amid production concerns linked to cold weather in North America. Corn fell 2.7% on rising global production forecasts, rice gained 11.1% on export growth and demand expectations, and soybeans rose 1.6% on forecasts of stronger Chinese demand from Brazil.

Cotton declined 1.2% amid lower production forecasts compared with the previous month. Sugar fell 2.1% on high production estimates and demand concerns, and coffee slipped 4.7% amid increased rainfall forecasts in Brazil.

Cocoa fell 31.3% per ton to its lowest level since November 2023 due to favorable weather in West Africa, expected to boost harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana in February and March, while farmers in the region are optimistic about the quality of the yield.

Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodity markets expert, told Anadolu that severe cold and heavy snowfall in the US drove natural gas prices higher last month, alongside declining storage levels.

Ergezen said higher Brent crude prices also supported natural gas, while European prices remained relatively stable despite colder-than-average winter conditions.

“The biggest difference between the US and Europe is probably the very full storage facilities in the latter — especially after the Russia–Ukraine war, with Russia cutting off gas supplies, Europe invested in its storage, while signing contracts with both US and Middle Eastern gas suppliers,” he said.

He added that natural gas prices are likely to ease as temperatures rise in the US.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim