• 664-seated bicameral parliament has 25% of seats allocated to serving military personnel
• Elections ‘not meant to resolve longstanding political issues but designed to create some impression for the military junta that things are improving,’ says Burmese scholar Maung Zarni
• Vote about ‘change only in outfit: from army fatigues to civilian clothes,’ says Rohingya defender Ro Nay San Lwin
• Role of China, India, with whom Myanmar shares borders, termed ‘important,’ West 'really does not matter'

ISTANBUL

Military-ruled Myanmar is set to hold multi-phased general elections starting on Sunday, its first vote since the 2021 coup and an exercise experts say is in name only, meant to legitimize the junta's grip on power.

Tatmadaw, as the military is locally known as, is conducting elections in three phases on Dec. 28, Jan. 11, and Jan. 25.

The Buddhist-majority nation of over 54 million people is ravaged by internal ethnic conflict involving armed groups and the military, leaving thousands dead and over 3.5 million displaced.

Approximately 21.9 million people, or 40% of the country's population, currently require humanitarian assistance, according to UN data.

Led by coup leader and acting President Min Aung Hlaing, 69, the junta has lost control of several strategic and trade routes while borders with China and India largely remain under the control of opposition ethnic groups.

Rohingya, the world’s most persecuted community, most of whom are natives of Rakhine state, have either been forced into Bangladesh or continue to face attacks.

Brotherhood Alliance – a grouping of opposition groups including the MNDAA, Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), as well as Arakan Army – have been fighting the military. But off late, the junta secured ceasefires with MNDAA and TNLA.

The internal instability has also made Myanmar a hub of scam centers and opium farming, which grew 17%, or to 53,100 hectares, this year. The UN’s drug agency noted “Myanmar’s role as the world’s known main source of illicit opium.”

Election in numbers

Myanmar has a bicameral 664-seat parliament – 440 in the lower house and 224 in the upper house.

Under the 2008 Constitution, 25% of the seats across the two houses are allocated to serving military personnel, making the role of the army critical in any reform process.

The last elections were held in November 2020 and won by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, or NLD. But the government was toppled on Feb. 1, 2021. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate was later charged with “voter fraud and lawless actions.”

The junta imposed a state of emergency across the nation, extending it multiple times until this July when Min Aung Hlaing formed a new interim government and announced elections.

Many of NLD lawmakers fled the nation to form a government in exile, while their leader Suu Kyi, who once defended the military from accusations of genocide against the Rohingya at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), remains under house arrest.

The first two phases of the polls cover 202 of Myanmar’s 330 townships, followed by a third phase in 63 townships.

The junta has neither given dates for counting the votes nor said when the election results will be announced.

While the 40 political parties were dissolved in 2023, including the NLD, at least six parties – with 4,963 candidates – are taking part in the vote.

Over 50 parties, meanwhile, are in the race at the regional levels.

Of the parties vying for parliament at the federal level, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has put up some 1,018 candidates.

After the vote, the parliament has to convene within three months to choose speakers and elect a president, the head of state who picks the prime minister to form the government.

‘Triangular’ conflict

Burmese politics expert Maung Zarni told Anadolu that the elections being conducted by the junta will bring “more conflict and more political instability” in the Southeast Asian nation.

“Elections are not meant to resolve the longstanding political issues but are designed to create some impression for the military junta that things are improving and that there would be some peace,” Zarni said over the phone from the UK, where he has been based for many years.

It is a “very, very wrong approach because most of the country is [still] in conflict,” he said.

The country is mired in “triangular conflict,” he said, referring to the competing groups – the Tatmadaw, the majority ethnic Burmese, and minority ethnic groups spread across the country.

“Political conflict that is rooted in the problem of the Burmese military not reforming nor democratizing,” he said.

There are non-Burmese, non-Buddhist minority people, ethnic groups who “want political autonomy based on the principle of group equality,” he explained.

And the second pillar “is majority of Burmese ethnic people who are fighting for human, civil rights, political democracy and are opposed to Burmese military,” said Zarni.

“The military is not addressing these issues. Instead, (what) junta has been trying to do is keep military as the main controller of Burmese national politics,” he said. “Election is not the medicine nor the solution.”

'Military will keep power'

According to Zarni, the junta, since the 2021 coup, has “has lost control” over trading and strategic routes, including those with China and India, where borders are controlled by Kachin and Chin ethnic groups.

The military administration, he said, also has no control over the 271-km land border (168 miles) with Bangladesh.

The Rakhine state, home to the Rohingya and which borders Bangladesh, is almost under the control of the Arakan Army, he added.

This, Zarni argued, makes it difficult to hold polls in the entire country.

That is why, he said, the people are crying foul that "there will be no representation in whatever political regime that emerges [out of elections]" and the "military will keep power to themselves.”

'Re-legalizing' 2008 Constitution

Rohingya defender and Burmese expert Ro Nay San Lwin argued that the junta’s “main goal” through this election is to “present the military government as a civilian [one].”

“They are trying to re-legalize the 2008 Constitution, ease international pressure and sanctions,” he said, referring to the Constitution formed by a quasi-junta government 17 years ago that reserved 25% of parliamentary seats for the military.

“Without military support in the parliament, no real reform is possible,” Lwin told Anadolu.

Besides, he added, the 2008 Constitution allows the military to control three critical ministries: interior, defense, and border affairs.

Backing Zarni’s analysis on resistance groups controlling almost half of the territory, Lwin said the election outcome will be “change only in outfit: from army fatigues to civilian clothes.”

It is like “pretending a political process is happening” but “is designed [as] formal military control through civilian coup,” said the Germany-based expert, who is co-chair of the Arakan Rohingya National Council.

Since opposition parties are banned, he said, the military-backed party will likely win, meaning the coup leader will be appointed as the next president.

China, India matter

Zarni, whose scholarship on the Rohingya genocide is widely acknowledged, said that while the Southeast Asian regional bloc ASEAN remains divided on Myanmar, China and India remain important in the regional context.

They are the two biggest economies in Asia, and most important militarily and politically, he said.

If Beijing and New Delhi “welcome the elections, the junta is going to gain some acceptance in Asia,” he predicted.

The “US, UK and EU – they don’t really matter in Myanmar politics, internally, nor does it matter to them. Whatever they say really does not matter,” Zarni stressed.

Elections will “not change much” for the Myanmar regionally, Lwin said.

Zarni warned that the forthcoming elections are “not about the people, peace, democracy, and stability.”

It is the “junta making itself more acceptable to stay in power, making big Asian giants a little bit happier to make business with” them, he said.

No difference for Rohingya

As for the Rohingya, Lwin said elections would bring no relief to the stateless population excluded from polls since 2015.

“It makes no difference because our territory, Rakhine state, is controlled by the Arakan Army,” he said, accusing the group of using the “same pattern and persecution as the junta does.”

There are 130,000 IDPs living in camps since 2012 who are not allowed to vote, while more than 1.2 million Rohingya have been forced into Bangladesh by the Tatmadaw since 2017.

“Since 2015, Rohingya have been disenfranchised, and these elections are not going to make any difference for the community,” he asserted.

The ICJ will hold public hearings from January 12-29 on allegations that Myanmar committed genocide against the Rohingya Muslim minority. The case was filed by West African nation of Gambia in 2019.

According to Zarni, the elections will bring no solution. “Conflicts left unresolved, no one is gonna give up armed resistance” against the junta, which means instability and insecurity will continue.”