SRINAGAR, Jammu and Kashmir
Major pro-Indian political parties in Indian-administered Kashmir are worried that outsiders will be allowed to vote in future local assembly elections, disempowering the native population in the process.
The elections will be the first since the Indian government revoked the region's autonomy in 2019, raising concerns that Muslims, who are in the majority, would be reduced to a minority by demographic flooding.
The revocation of Article 35A of the Indian Constitution in August 2019 was integral to Article 370, the primary clause that established the quasi-autonomous relationship between India and Indian-administered Kashmir. Article 35A was historically significant since it prevented non-natives from owning immovable property or exercising political rights in the Indian-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir.
Prior to that, only “permanent residents” or the 12.5 million people of the erstwhile state’s regions of Kashmir (97% Muslim), Jammu (62.4% Hindu) and Ladakh (46.6% Muslims, 39.7% Buddhists and 12.1% Hindus) were allowed to vote, own property or apply for government jobs.
The state had its own constitution, separate from the Indian Constitution, to make laws and define who its “permanent residents” were.
But after the controversial move in 2019, Jammu and Kashmir is just like any other union territory of India, ruled by New Delhi through a lieutenant governor.
If the Indian government decides to restore statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, the next legislative assembly would have slightly more powers than if it stays a union territory.
In both cases, it matters greatly to residents who is eligible to vote in the radically transformed region.
‘Outsiders can vote’
Chief electoral officer Hirdesh Kumar, announcing progress on the updating of voter lists, told reporters that any person “living ordinarily” in the region, such as “an employee, a student, laborer or anyone,” is eligible to vote.
He said 2.5 million people would become eligible.
His statements drew criticism from major Kashmiri pro-India political parties, including the National Conference and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which said outside voters were aimed at “disenfranchising” residents.
Two other parties, the Apni Party and People’s Conference, seen as being on good terms with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), sought clarification from the Indian government.
A statement from the local information department said 2.5 million new voters would be residents who were about to attain the voting age of 18, as well as others who became eligible after abrogation. The clarification placated the Apni Party and People’s Conference, but the rest remained skeptical.
Hassnain Masoodi, a former chief justice of the undivided Jammu and Kashmir High Court and member of the Indian parliament, told Anadolu Agency that the clarification on the contentious points should have come from the Election Commission of India, not the local information department.
“There is no clarity as yet on who are these ‘ordinarily residing’ persons are,” said Masoodi, whose party, the National Conference, is one of five that have called for a meeting of major Indian parties to discuss the issue in September.
While the Supreme Court has yet to decide on the legality of the laws used to divide Jammu and Kashmir, the government was implementing laws that were not earlier applicable to Kashmir at a “very fast pace,” he said.
Suhail Bukhari, the PDP's chief spokesman, echoed Masoodi’s fears about the “ordinarily residing voters.”
“We will decide on the future course of action after the all-party meeting in September. We have to raise our voice,” he remarked.
Ruling party defends new rules
In defense of the decision to allow “employees, students and laborers” from outside to vote in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP cites a pan-Indian law that allows it with a rider that the person gives up voting rights in his native place.
“This law is the same for everyone. If a Kashmiri can vote in Maharashtra state, why can’t outsiders vote here?” Altaf Thakur, the BJP’s spokesman for Kashmir, told Anadolu Agency. The number of new voters could be higher or lower than 2.5 million on the final voter list, he added.
"The other political parties are making an unnecessary fuss to mislead the people," he claimed.
A verdict on the election, whenever it is held, would be seen as a referendum of sorts on India’s unilateral withdrawal of Kashmir’s autonomous status, according to analysts.
The BJP is likely to win the majority of constituencies in Hindu-majority Jammu province, like in the previous election, but may fall short of the number needed to form a government. It will especially find it hard to win enough seats in the Kashmir Valley, where resentment against the 2019 decision is deep.
Since then, anti-government protests are either not allowed and a few that were held in defiance were foiled by police, which cites law and order disturbance as the reason.
That is probably why only two or three small demonstrations were held by PDP members in Jammu and Srinagar, where protesters displayed placards with “imported voters unacceptable” and “stop discrimination” messages.
‘Hindus also fear disempowerment’
Many ordinary Kashmiris, who spoke to Anadolu Agency on the condition of anonymity due to fear of reprisals, believe that allowing outsiders to vote is aimed at further disempowering them.
“This new decision appears to be one more logical step toward the demographic drowning of Kashmiris,” said Imran Malik, a student and resident of Srinagar.
While the resentment in Kashmir is understandable, given its Muslim majority, the people in Jammu are also unhappy with the decision, said Tarun Upadhyay, a Jammu-based political commentator.
“People in Jammu, particularly Hindu majority districts, have a sense of unease on this issue as they are staring at an identity crisis," Upadhyay said, adding that "they are already a minority, which has always made them feel insecure and has been a big reason for the tension in the Kashmir region.”
He said a substantial number of outsiders have settled over the years after coming for work in the private sector that has received big investments.
“Since there is no clear-cut definition of ordinarily living people, it isn’t clear how many of such workers will get the voting rights. But it is certain that they will get this right, which will create tensions as even a few thousand votes from these outsiders would make a big difference in election results,” he said.
"And people will wonder whether, if a candidate is elected with the help of such voters, he will represent the aspirations of Jammu residents?" Will he be aware of their sensitivities?" he asked.
Upadhyay said the possibility of outside voters altering electoral results has induced in Jammu Hindus a fear of “political disempowerment.”
“They are already staring at economic disempowerment since many well-heeled outsiders are threatening local businesses,” he said.
‘Fears unfounded’
Ghulam Hassan Mir, a Kashmiri politician, dismisses such concerns as a "symptom of overlooking the reality of Aug. 5, 2019 changes."
“Kashmir is a different place now. It is just like any other part of India, and all of its laws apply here. Rather than working people up, local political parties should get practical and keep an eye on new electoral lists and see what changes are being made,” he told Anadolu Agency.
“They should protect the people’s distinct identity where it can be protected rather than keeping the youth busy in controversies. In any case, there is little we can do if things happen as announced,” said Mir.
