First post-Hasina polls in Bangladesh next week seen as bellwether of nation's future

DHAKA, Bangladesh

Political campaigns are stepping up in Bangladesh for next week's general elections, which many political analysts see as critical to determining the future of the South Asian nation of 175 million people following the 2024 overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina government.

The campaign to elect a five-year government began on Jan. 22 and will continue until Feb. 10. Preliminary results are scheduled to be announced on the same day as the elections, Thursday, Feb. 12.

However, the Muhammad Yunus-led government says the election results will take longer on election day because a constitutional reform referendum will also be held at the same time.

The general elections have been scheduled since August 2024, when Hasina's government was deposed, forcing her to flee to India and effectively ending the Awami League party's 15-year rule.

After Hasina's Awami League party was barred from participating in the elections, former allies the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami party have risen to become the main competitors.

The National Citizen Party (NCP), whose leaders led the "July Uprising" that deposed Hasina's government, has joined the Jamaat-led election alliance, which indicates a close race in the election.

Nearly one-third of voters (30.2%) reported basing their vote primarily on the individual candidate alone, a share that is comparable to those who rely mainly on party affiliation (30.4%), while a slightly larger group considers both party and candidate together (33.2%), said a survey this week done jointly by the Communication and Research Foundation, based in the capital Dhaka, and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies.

Zakaria Polash, the foundation's strategic coordinator, told Anadolu that corruption will have a significant impact on voters' decisions.

“Our recent survey also suggests that 67% of voters will cast their vote for the leader who will be against corruption. This narrative is a clear reflection of the aspirations of the July uprising,” he said.

Referring to the uprising, he said young voters will be one of the key decision-making blocs in the elections.

“There are over 40 million (more than one-third) who have not voted in any credible election in the last 17 years. They want a change. So, they are focusing on parties who advocate for changes,” he continued.

According to some other surveys, of the 1981 candidates contesting 300 parliamentary seats, 1696 are contesting in the election for the first time.