ISTANBUL

Thousands of Chinese political delegates are set to gather in Beijing this week for their annual gathering to discuss policies that will shape the course of the world’s second-largest economy.

The Chinese capital will host weeklong sessions of the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC), the country’s top legislature composed of members of the ruling Communist Party of China.

Meetings of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body that includes representatives from business, sports and non-Communist political parties, will also take place.

These parallel annual gatherings, held since 1978, are known internationally as the “Two Sessions,” or Lianghui in China.

The NPC, which formally opens on March 5, includes 2,878 deputies serving five-year terms that expire in March 2028. The CPPCC has 2,172 members divided into 34 participating groups.

Premier Li Qiang is expected to present the government work report as head of the State Council, China’s Cabinet, and announce economic targets. Deputies will later vote on draft legislation submitted by the NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC).

Beijing is also set to unveil the 15th Five-Year Plan, outlining development priorities for 2026-2030.

Two Sessions: ‘Agenda set in advance’

Zhao Leji serves as China’s top legislator, chairing both the NPC and its Standing Committee. Political theorist and ideologue Wang Huning leads the CPPCC.

The NPC meets once a year, typically in March, to review and vote on legislation. Its Standing Committee, comprising around 170 members, convenes every two months and has the authority to enact laws and remove officials.

President Xi Jinping, in office since 2013, regularly attends the “Two Sessions.”

Changhao Wei, who leads NPC Observer -- a dedicated online newsletter on activities of the Chinese legislature, told Anadolu that Xi has regularly attended the annual event, 13 times, so far.

The NPC sessions “are highly choreographed events: its agenda is set in advance and most of the agenda items recur each year,” Changhao said.

He said the deputies listen to work reports by key state institutions, central government budget, and annual plan for economic and social development.

“Every report, bill, or nomination submitted for review is expected to pass, and indeed none has ever been rejected by the NPC,” he said, adding: “That fundamental dynamic has not changed since Xi took office.”

Consensus or political loyalty?

According to Changhao, the NPC has undergone some changes during Xi’s 13 years in power, now in his third term.

“First, the share of no votes and abstentions has declined noticeably,” he said, noting that since 2020, each category of documents has consistently received over 95% approval -- and consistently over 90% since 2017.

“This may reflect stronger substantive agreement with Xi-era policies. But it may also reflect tighter political screening of delegates, as authorities have placed a greater emphasis on political loyalty in delegate selection since Xi took office,” he said.

Since 2015, the full NPC has passed legislation at every annual session.

“Before that, there were years when the NPC approved no legislation at all … Having the full NPC pass legislation annually is officially one of the ways to implement the concept of ‘whole-process people’s democracy’,” he explained.

Since 2020, he said, the NPC sessions “have been shorter and have featured fewer press conferences.”

Initially, it was due to the COVID-19 restrictions “but appear to have been made permanent. But it’s less obvious that these changes are directly attributable to Xi-era policy shifts,” said Changhao.

Since 2024, the Chinese premier has also stopped holding traditional post-NPC press conferences.

The gathering comes as Xi has intensified an anti-corruption campaign that has led to the removal of senior military figures, including Gen. Zhang Youxia and Gen. Liu Zhenli. The People’s Liberation Army and People’s Armed Police remain represented in the NPC, though the number of military deputies has been reduced to 243 for the upcoming sessions.

On the sidelines, deputies typically meet with Xi, who outlines government priorities. China’s foreign minister also holds an annual press conference during the meetings.

‘Deliberate moderate’ targets for ‘high-quality growth’

This year marks the launch of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, running through 2030. Observers expect economic targets and the new plan’s policy direction to dominate discussions.

Global tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and intensifying great power competition in Asia, pose challenges for the world’s second-largest economy, which met its GDP target of “around 5%” last year -- a constant for the past three years.

The main message this year will be “about trading moderate growth with targeted, rather than ‘big bang,’ stimulus, with more emphasis on self-reliance and industrial policy,” said Beijing-based analyst Einar Tangen.

The 15th Five-Year Plan points to “high-quality” growth centered on innovation, technological self-reliance, green transition and economic resilience, he said.

It will not be “return to credit-fueled, property-led expansion,” Tangen added.

As a result, GDP targets are expected to fall “in the mid-4% range (roughly 4.5%-5%),” an assessment agreed to by China analysts at the New York-based think tank Asia Society.

“China is likely to drop its headline growth target to a record low,” wrote Neil Thomas and Lobsang Tsering ahead of the meetings.

At this year’s provincial-level Two Sessions, “21 of 31 local governments lowered their growth targets,” they noted.

Tangen said the targets set during the gathering will prioritize research and development intensity, industrial upgrading, environmental standards, employment, and social program KPIs.

In recent years, Xi has highlighted three core priorities: advancing new quality productive forces, deepening market-based reforms in factor allocation, and curbing “involution.”

The new Five-Year Plan “signals a deliberate choice to accept moderate growth in exchange for employment, industrial depth, and technological sovereignty,” Tangen said.