INTERVIEW - Western policy of opening new front against Russia in Armenia now seen in Georgia: Academic

ISTANBUL

A Turkish academic said the West's policy of opening a new front against Russia in Armenia can now be seen in the case of Georgia.

In an interview with Anadolu, Yildiz Deveci Bozkus, a professor at Ankara University who has expertise in Armenia and Caucasus issues, assessed the ongoing rallies and discussions over a controversial 'foreign agents' bill in Georgia, as well as its repercussions.

Q: Why did the people revolt in Georgia?

Bozkus: The adoption of the bill known as the bill “On the Transparency of Foreign Influence" in Georgia with a large approval rate caused mobilization in the streets of Tbilisi. If the bill in question comes into force, organizations established in Georgia and that receive more than 20% of their funds from abroad will have to be registered as "agents of foreign influence" or "organizations that pursue the interests of a foreign power." If the bill comes into force, the registration process of such organizations will be controlled by Georgia's Justice Ministry.

Since the bill includes fines for such organizations, the opposition claims that this bill was introduced to suppress different ideas in Georgia. The opposition also thinks that this bill will harm the country's integration process with the European Union. It is known that both the ruling party and the opposition in Georgia have been keen on membership in both the EU and NATO for a long time. For this reason, while the government points out that this law is essential for Georgia's sovereignty, the opposition states that this step will significantly disrupt freedom of thought in the country.

This bill, which caused protests for days in Tbilisi, was brought to the agenda before in 2023 and was withdrawn after protests. Issues such as why the Georgian government has brought the bill back to the agenda and the effects of the bill on the country have led to serious discussions between the opposition and the government. While the opposition in Tbilisi accuses the law of being "pro-Russian," the government points out that the protesters took to the streets with the support of the EU and the West. In addition, the opposition carrying Georgian and EU flags during the protests causes the government to accuse the opposition of being pro-EU. Regarding the protests, Russia points out that foreign powers have a hand in what is happening in Tbilisi.

Q: What does the "foreign agents" bill mean for the sides?

Bozkus: The fact that the bill, which was discussed before but was withdrawn due to public and opposition protests, is now back on the agenda has caused some disagreements in society. A group in Georgia says that this law alienates the country from the EU and deals a blow to freedom of thought. On the other hand, these developments also bring to mind the question of whether Georgia will be the new Ukraine, because it is known that the recent developments in the South Caucasus are directly related to global developments. In this regard, it should be noted that the victory in Karabakh as well as the Russia-Ukraine war affected the developments in Georgia.

Another group predicts that the West's influence in the region will be limited with the implementation of this bill. For this reason, it seems that two separate blocs which are pro-EU and pro-Russian have formed over the bill. This issue gives the impression that the implementation of the bill will be a test on the country's path to EU membership and integration with the West. In light of these developments, Georgia's turn to the West, just like Armenia, would be an important move by the West against Russia. On the other hand, the enactment of the bill would make Tbilisi's regional position even more critical, as it would move the country away from its EU goal. So at the end of the day, it can be said that the strength of global competition will determine who wins and who loses in the South Caucasus.

Q: Is Georgia turning into a new arena of struggle between Russia and the Western world?

Bozkus: Fault lines have been on the move in the South Caucasus for some time. Regional and global developments play an important role in the mobilization of these fault lines. For this reason, although the international public raises questions about whether Georgia will become a new Ukraine, what is happening in the region can actually be considered as the historical competition of global powers in the South Caucasus. On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that the developments in the South Caucasus are linked to the new conjunctures regarding the Karabakh region and the Zangezur corridor. This reveals that the Caucasus region has strategic importance in every period of history.

When we look at all these developments as a whole, it can be seen that global powers are trying to turn this region into a new arena of struggle, both in terms of timing and the content of the "foreign agents" law. This is because Georgia, as in many periods of history, has very critical importance, both in strategic and geopolitical terms. Especially after the victory in Karabakh, it is possible to see the manifestation of the West's policy of opening a new front against Russia through Armenia, this time in Georgia. At this point, Armenia clearly declared that it was turning its face towards the West and showed that it was moving away from Russia. However, it is somewhat doubtful whether a similar situation will occur in Georgia. While Georgia's bitter experience with Russia regarding the issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008 is on the table, taking a new pro-Russian step on this issue may lead to a further escalation of tensions in the country and lead to tragic consequences. For this reason, while Georgia's past bitter experience with Russia regarding its country's territorial integrity is still fresh in its memory, it seems difficult for the country to face a new crisis.

On the other hand, the voices rising from the Western world regarding the actions that went down in history as one of the largest protests in Tbilisi since the dissolution of the Soviet Union give signs that the process will be painful. Countries such as the United States and England, which are called historical great powers, as well as countries such as Germany, Italy and France, which are important members of the EU, have stated that the bill should be withdrawn. This also shows that this bill clarifies the positions of the global ranks like a litmus test.