By Teshgom Kamal
The writer is an independent researcher based in Istanbul. He writes on Iranian foreign policy and domestic politics.
ISTANBUL
One might wonder, while Iranian President Rouhani successfully convinced the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for what came to be known as the “heroic softness” (Narmish e Qahremananih) over the nuclear issue, why does he not strive to assume a similar stance with regards to Syria? President Rouhani’s performance in the nuclear deal would suggest that he would have the convincing potential to stop the Iranian leadership from collaborating with Bashar al-Assad in the mass murders in Syria.
A constructive role to be played by Rouhani in the Syrian crisis could have reinforced his position on the nuclear deal as well, because a major portion of the economic gains Rouhani made out of the deal is being spent to protect al-Assad. As a result, he has largely failed to deliver on his economic promises. Namely, the main beneficiary of the nuclear settlement and the subsequent sanction-relief program has been the Iranian proxy-war-machine in Syria, not the Iranian people.
One of the objectives of the deal was to take the country out of its long-running isolation and bring value to the Iranian passport. But, in actuality, the document has lost even more value. In the past, the Iranian passport was held in some sort of esteem at least in the Muslim world owing to the Iranian leaders’ anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric. With the Iranian government’s involvement in Syria, public opinion in many parts of the Muslim world is significantly growing against Iran.
In analyzing Iran’s involvement in Syria, most experts rightfully stick with international relations theories. However, it makes them miss the power structure in the Islamic Republic as a crucial factor. In fact, the reason behind President Rouhani’s apathetic approach toward the Syrian crisis should be sought within the political rivalries and power politics among the Iranian elites.
President Rouhani is one of those few clerics with firsthand security experience and vast knowledge of the internal dynamics of the Iranian armed forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRG). His presidency has coincided with a crucial period in the history of the Islamic Republic given the current Supreme Leader’s fragile health. And this would prove to be the case if he wins the presidency for the second time in the coming election in May 2017.
The 76-year-old Supreme Leader, who pretends to be healthy, is, however, reportedly suffering from prostate cancer. Although there are a number of people thought to be potential successors, no one exactly knows who would succeed him.
Among a dozen other Shia clerics, Rouhani feels that he is entitled to the position since the current Supreme Leader was also the then-president of the republic at the time of the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Yet, it is quite clear that Rouhani -- as a candidate mainly favored by reformists and moderates -- has a smaller chance than any other candidate backed by the conservatives.
It is generally understood that the IRG would play a key role in the appointment of the new Supreme Leader. If so, the IRG leadership would hardly support Rouhani. Therefore, Rouhani does not mind that the IRG is spending its resources in Syria and is engaged in the ongoing war over there.
The IRG is losing more and more of its reputation as Iranians watch the coffins of their children come back one after the other. As a result, by the time of the power transition, the IRG will not be as powerful as it is today. Furthermore, fighting on two fronts puts the IRG in a situation in which it has to assume a more compromising attitude.
The IRG commanders also seem to be aware of President Rouhani’s intention. They are trying to deal with it in their own way. Instead of relying on Iranian soldiers, they are recruiting Lebanese, Afghani, Iraqi and Pakistani mercenaries for the war in Syria. Ironically, in a country where the remains of the Iranian soldiers killed during the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s are still being searched and found and their coffins are displayed in Iranian cities with glamorous funeral processions, the bodies of Iranian soldiers recently killed in Syria are buried in the dark of the night.
More importantly, although the IRG is generally loyal to the Supreme Leader, there are several commanders who are sympathetic with former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, to whom they owe their wealth and power. It was he who got them involved in the development sector after the end of the Iran-Iraq War, on the grounds that all organs should be given a chance to contribute to the reconstruction of the country.
The IRG also became polarized following the controversial presidential election of 2009. The Syrian crisis has therefore provided the IRG leadership with a valuable opportunity to get rid of the aforementioned non-conformist and rogue elements through an honorable exit. Unlike the common Iranian soldiers, the coffins of IRG commanders are demonstrated in the Iranian streets with full state protocol.
By showing apathy toward the Syrian crisis, Rouhani also aims at “horse-trading” in Qom, the religious hub of the powerful Shia clergy. In the Shia clergy’s worldview, the Iranian involvement in Syria is a divine mission to take revenge on the descendants of Yazid ibn (son of) Muawiya, the main culprit in the martyrdom of Imam Hussain, the grandson of Prophet Muhammad (upon him be peace and blessings). Rouhani hopes to take advantage of the Syrian crisis to win the favor of the Shia clergy. Therefore, the ill-fated Syrians are caught in the rivalry between Iranian elites in addition to that of the global and regional powers.
However, with the new development in the U.S. administration following the victory of the Republican Party, one can expect a change in Iran’s behavior in its foreign affairs, including its involvement in Syria. This is because the American Republican Party and the Iranian regime share some important features. First, both are skilled in the art of secret dealing at which they have a solid record. Second, issues such as democracy, political prisoners, human rights, etc., matter to neither. Third, both speak a common language that is defined in terms of power.
The problem with the Obama administration has been the fact that it has tried to deal with Iran within a framework of certain principles in which the Iranian regime does not believe at all. While the Iranian regime would definitely miss the Obama era, it may seek a clandestine deal with the Trump administration. One should not forget, although George W. Bush declared Iran to be part of the “Axis of Evil”, Iran still provided the U.S. with an air corridor during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. Similarly, the Iranian regime released the American diplomats, taken hostage during a raid on the U.S. embassy in Tehran, only a few minutes after the oath-taking ceremony of Ronald Reagan as U.S. president.
Therefore, a new secret Iran-U.S. deal over the Syrian crisis can be expected as soon as Donald Trump officially steps into the White House. The possibility of such a deal particularly increases if President Rouhani cannot win the next presidential election, a project for which the conservatives are working hard.
* Opinions expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy
