- These Gulf countries ‘are important investors in the US economy’ and Trump is ‘determined to deepen America’s commercial ties with all three,’ says analyst Giorgio Cafiero
- With regards to Iran, the outcome of Trump’s trip ‘this time will hopefully be greater diplomacy rather than expanded and unnecessary’ conflict, says Annelle Sheline of the Quincy Institute
- ‘Early indications suggest that talks will focus on narrow bilateral ties concerning commerce and coordination on strategic sectors, such as AI, mining, and nuclear development,’ says Kristin Diwan of the Arab Gulf States Institute
ISTANBUL
As US President Donald Trump heads to the Middle East for the first major international trip of his second term, analysts say the high-profile tour underscores the enduring strategic and economic significance of the Gulf Arab states in Washington’s foreign policy.
The tour, scheduled to begin on Tuesday, includes stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, marking a significant diplomatic moment amid regional upheaval, particularly Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza.
According to a report published Friday by Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, Trump’s visit comes amid growing friction with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose continued defiance of US directives on Gaza has reportedly tested the patience of Trump’s inner circle.
Citing unnamed sources, the report claimed the administration has “simply had enough” of Netanyahu’s resistance to aligning with Washington’s strategic vision for the region.
The Jerusalem Post, quoting a Gulf diplomatic source, added fuel to the speculation, reporting that Trump may issue a declaration formally recognizing a Palestinian state – one that excludes Hamas. If confirmed, such a move would mark a major pivot in US policy and dramatically reshape the dynamics of Israeli-Arab relations.
Other unconfirmed reports in Israeli media suggest that Trump’s scheduled meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh could be expanded to include Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. On Monday, Trump also said he was “thinking about flying over” to Türkiye for the potential Thursday meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.
Analysts say Trump’s packed agenda will address a wide array of regional and global issues – from trade, investment, and AI to the war in Ukraine, Red Sea security, Gaza, Syria, and the Iranian nuclear file – with high-level coordination expected between the US and its key Gulf partners.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, noted that unlike Trump’s first term in 2017, when his inaugural overseas visit was limited to Saudi Arabia, this time the president is also visiting Doha and Abu Dhabi.
“The fact that this upcoming trip includes not only Riyadh but also Doha and Abu Dhabi says much about the significance of Qatar and the UAE’s clout,” he said.
“These three Gulf Arab monarchies are important investors in the US economy across a host of sectors. Trump is determined to deepen America’s commercial ties with all three, which fits into his ‘Make America Great Again’ agenda.”
Iran and regional stability
Among the key topics expected to dominate Trump’s talks is the future of the Iranian nuclear deal.
Annelle Sheline, a research fellow for the Middle East at the Quincy Institute, said the current landscape is markedly different from 2017, when Trump’s support emboldened Saudi Arabia and the UAE to impose a failed blockade on Qatar.
This time, she said, it appears to signal that Trump is listening to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) concerns about a possible war with Iran, “something Netanyahu and Israel have wanted for years.”
“Given that the GCC has tried to reduce tensions with Iran in recent years as they pursue economic development … the outcome of Trump’s trip this time will hopefully be greater diplomacy rather than expanded and unnecessary internecine GCC conflict,” the expert told Anadolu.
Sheline emphasized that across the GCC, there is strong support for diplomacy with Tehran, including a potential revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
“The GCC states are focused mostly on achieving greater peace and stability in the Gulf, so their ambitious plans for economic development and diversification can advance,” she said.
“Any developments that reduce the risk of a new war involving Iran or any country in the neighborhood is welcome.”
Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Trump’s stance regarding Iran’s nuclear capacity would also impact his administration’s engagements with the Gulf states.
“These (Gulf) governments have made clear their desire to develop civilian nuclear programs,” Toossi said.
“If the US recognizes Iran’s right to (uranium) enrichment, it may find itself in the uncomfortable position of denying that same right to its Arab partners. In this context, the administration’s hardline rhetoric ahead of the Muscat talks may have been aimed not only at Tehran, but also at Riyadh and Abu Dhabi,” he added, referring to the indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the US in the Omani capital.
Abraham Accords and recognition of Palestine
Trump’s visit also comes amid fresh speculation about the expansion of the Abraham Accords.
“We think (we) will have some, or a lot, of announcements very, very shortly, which we hope will yield great progress by next year,” Steve Witkoff, the US president’s Middle East envoy, said during an event at the Israeli Embassy in Washington last week, according to a report by the Jewish Insider.
Analysts, however, doubt that Riyadh will move forward with full normalization with Israel under current conditions.
“I do not expect Saudi Arabia to announce that it would normalize with Israel,” Sheline said. “I hope the Saudi leadership will make it clear to Trump that he must not continue to provide support to Israel as they engage in a genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, and that he must withhold security assistance to Israel in order to compel them to allow in aid and end the war on Gaza.”
Cafiero echoed this sentiment, noting that both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have repeatedly insisted that normalization with Israel is contingent upon the creation of a Palestinian state.
“Riyadh and Doha would only normalize relations with Israel if a Palestinian state emerges, which is an unimaginable scenario with this current Israeli government in power,” he said.
“I don’t expect this presidential visit to move either Saudi Arabia or Qatar closer to Israeli normalization without current conditions drastically changing.”
Economic deals and defense commitments
Beyond diplomacy, Trump’s visit is expected to focus heavily on trade and defense cooperation.
Kristin Diwan, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said the visit will likely emphasize commercial partnerships in various strategic sectors.
“Early indications suggest that talks will focus on narrow bilateral ties concerning commerce and coordination on strategic sectors, such as AI, mining, and nuclear development,” she said.
“I expect most outcomes to center on transactional agreements.”
According to reports, the US has already approved a $3.5 billion missile sale to Saudi Arabia ahead of Trump’s visit, while an even larger arms package reportedly valued at over $100 billion may be unveiled during the trip.
In January, during his first phone call with Trump after the US elections, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced Saudi Arabia’s intention to increase trade and investment with the US by up to $600 billion over the next four years.
In conjunction with Trump’s visit, a major investment forum is scheduled to take place in Riyadh on Tuesday, with attendees expected to include BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Palantir CEO Alex Karp, and senior executives from Citigroup, IBM, Qualcomm, Alphabet, and American multinational investment firm Franklin Templeton. White House AI and crypto advisor David Sacks is also expected to participate.
Sheline added that while the US is likely to announce new arms or defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, these must be carefully balanced against Trump’s “America First” stance.
“If the US signs an open-ended security commitment to Saudi Arabia, this would contravene Trump’s ‘America First’ credentials,” she said.
“It’s not in US interests to commit to defending Saudi Arabia in all circumstances. The US must be free to choose when defending Saudi Arabia (or Israel) serves America’s interests.”
