By Alix Hardy

MEXICO CITY 

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has just won Mexican elections but he is already playing his part as President of Mexico.

Twelve days after being elected and six months before he is sworn-in, he will in this city to discuss the future of the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Mexico.

The meeting, which will take place in a house in the trendy Roma Norte neighborhood, where AMLO currently conducts his daily business, is expected to set the tone of the future Mexican-American relationship.

AMLO will meet U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And there is much to be expected, given the relationship between outgoing president Peña Nieto and president Donald Trump took a bad turn from the start.

In August 2016, President Enrique Pena Nieto extended an invitation to both American presidential candidates. The Republican candidate, who accepted, went to Mexico and delivered a hardline speech about illegal immigration and insisted Mexicans would pay for a border wall.

Pena Nieto was also widely criticized for not retaliating strongly enough to the various insults Trump have lodged about the Mexicans, who he called “criminals” and “animals”, among other qualificatives.

According to Humberto Garza Elizondo, professor and researcher on international relations department of the Colegio de Mexico, the Lopez Obrador-Pompeo meeting could well be the start of a new chapter in the bilateral relationship.

“The Washington government is coming to Mexico to check what mindset the Mexican side is in. They are willing to cooperate and want to make sure Lopez Obrador is not a threat,” he said.

Lopez Obrador, who won the July 1 election by a landslide and also secured his coalition an absolute majority in Congress and the Senate, according to the latest official estimates, has brought the left to power in Mexico. He is also a strong nationalist.

AMLO has said he would sit at the table to renegotiate the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to Mexico’s advantage. Trump has repeatedly dogged the agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada. “No NAFTA (was) better than bad NAFTA”, AMLO said, indicating he would not be pressured into accepting just anything from the Americans.

Yet his strong personality could be of use in the future Trump - AMLO relationship, some believe. Many have pointed out the two presidents, despite their obvious differences, share some similar personality traits.

“They are of the same generation. Both are deemed authoritarian and have very firm ideas about things,” Garza said. And Trump has reportedly nicknamed AMLO “Juan Trump”.

“Peña Nieto had lost Trump’s respect and couldn’t accomplish anything in this relationship,” Garza says. “Trump will give more consideration to someone who stands firm in opposition to him.

“The Americans will use the pretext of AMLO’s arrival to wipe the slate clean and give the relationship a new start”, he adds.

The two countries should be willing to work together as both have interests. “Mexico needs the United States’ cooperation to ensure its economy works. But the U.S. also need Mexico on pressing immigration matters,” he points out.

Professor Soledad Loaeza Tovar, who teaches and researchers at the International Studies Center at Colegio de Mexico, has a much less optimistic approach to Friday’s meeting. “This mission’s objective is basically intimidation”, she said, pointing to the number of key secretaries -- Homeland Security and Treasury -- headed to Mexico with Pompeo.

“Trump’s attitude towards Mexico has always been hostile. I do not see why this would have changed over the last few days.”

“Trump considers the Mexicans as a single batch. He makes no distinction and calls us all ‘animal’ or ‘rapists’.” She added her skepticism that Lopez Obrador’s personality could single-handedly overcome that line of thought.

Moreover, Loaeza believes the meeting could b negatively impact the Mexican president-elect.

“If the Americans try to impose their conditions, will he stay cold-blooded? Will he be able to handle the humiliation?”

Garza agrees that if Pompeo is only testing the waters, AMLO’s stakes are higher. “At the end of the meeting, he wants to appear before the Mexican people as a man in position to achieve things with the Americans,” he says.

Both Loaeza and Garza agree that Trump's attitude towards Mexico is rooted in the need to keep his national electoral base happy, and that it will be difficult for the next Mexican president to influence.

“Mexico is a key element in Trump’s narrative at home,” Garza states.

Especially in light of the U.S.’s upcoming midterms elections in November, which Trump plans on winning by focusing on the immigration issue.