• Experts sound the alarm over growing impact of climate change and extreme weather patterns in fueling unprecedented winter fire activity
• ‘Winter fires are already more common in Southern California and are expected to become more frequent in the future with ongoing climate change,’ warns wildfire science expert Stefan Doerr
• ‘Wildfires are now occurring more frequently outside typical seasons,’ says Kimberley Simpson of the University of Sheffield
• California wildfires have reignited debate over US climate policies, with critics urging incoming President Trump to treat climate change ‘like the existential crisis it is’

ISTANBUL

As massive wildfires continue to engulf parts of Southern California, experts are sounding the alarm over the growing influence of climate change and extreme weather patterns in fueling this unprecedented winter fire activity.

Los Angeles has been gripped by a series of deadly infernos that have already claimed at least 10 lives and razed thousands of homes, businesses, and other structures.

More than 70,000 residents have been forced to evacuate, with thousands more on standby as mandatory evacuation orders expand.

Among the most destructive of the blazes is the Palisades Fire, which ignited on Tuesday and has since ballooned into the largest active wildfire, scorching nearly 20,000 acres.

Hot on its heels is the Eaton Fire, which erupted just hours later, rapidly consuming around 13,700 acres in and around the foothill city of Altadena.

Wildfire experts attribute the ferocity and scale of these winter blazes to a combination of strong winds, prolonged drought, and the accelerating impacts of climate change. They caution that winter wildfires could become a more frequent and devastating occurrence in the years ahead.

“Several studies have conclusively shown that the fire season in California has lengthened significantly over recent decades,” Stefan Doerr, director of the Centre for Wildfire Research at Swansea University, told Anadolu.

“This means winter fires are already more common in Southern California and are expected to become more frequent in the future with ongoing climate change.” 

Perfect storm: What sparked the wildfires?

Explaining the conditions behind these catastrophic wildfires, Kimberley Simpson, a fellow in nature-based climate solutions at the School of Biosciences at the University of Sheffield, pointed to a deadly mix of weather anomalies.

“Heavy rains from El Nino early last year, followed by prolonged dry winter in Southern California, have resulted in an abundance of dry vegetation – prime fuel for wildfires,” said Simpson.

Although the precise causes of the fires remain under investigation, Simpson noted that research overwhelmingly shows that human activity – whether accidental or intentional – accounts for the majority of wildfires in the US.

The rapid and unrelenting spread of the flames, she said, is largely due to the infamous Santa Ana winds, which are powerful, dry gusts typical during this time of year.

“These winds not only fan the flames but also carry embers far ahead of the fire, sparking new blazes. The mountainous terrain in the affected areas makes the situation even more dangerous, as fires spread faster on steep slopes and firefighting efforts become more difficult,” Simpson told Anadolu.

Doerr echoed these concerns, emphasizing that while the Santa Ana winds are not unusual, their impact has been intensified by ongoing drought conditions.

“The fact that winter rainfall that normally occurs in the Mediterranean climate here have not arrived yet meant continued drought conditions, and hence, extremely flammable vegetation,” he said.

“This generated the ‘perfect storm’ for the extreme fires we see now.”  

Rise of winter wildfires

The frequency and severity of these winter fires have unsettled experts, who regard them as a troubling deviation from historical wildfire patterns.

In the Western US, said Simpson, summer and autumn are traditionally considered wildfire season, as hot temperatures and low rainfall dry out vegetation, increasing the risk of ignition and fire spread.

“However, wildfires are now occurring more frequently outside this typical season, such as the ones currently burning in Southern California,” she added.

Doerr agreed, noting that while fires in Southern California have been more common in the summer and autumn months, the emergence of severe winter wildfires is “unusual” and deeply concerning.

Highlighting the growing trend, Doerr referenced similar out-of-season fires, such as the December wildfires in Colorado and a late-winter blaze in Texas.

The US is experiencing more “extreme winter fires ... and this is associated with climate change,” he emphasized.

“It doesn’t necessarily need to be warm for wildfires to ignite,” he said.

“Dry, strong winds combined with a lack of snowpack are key factors in these extreme fire events.”  

Role of climate change in escalating wildfires

Experts overwhelmingly agree that climate change is playing a pivotal role in intensifying wildfires – not just in California, but globally.

Climate change has lengthened fire seasons nearly everywhere around the world, increasing by 27% globally since the 1980s, according to Doerr.

The impact has been particularly severe in California, where some now consider the fire season to be year-round, he added.

Although it remains too early to determine the exact degree to which climate change has fueled the current fires, Doerr stressed that “climate change has made winter droughts here more likely,” laying the groundwork for more extreme wildfires.

Simpson added that rising global temperatures and prolonged droughts are drying out vegetation, making it more flammable for longer stretches of the year.

“This extended fire season is especially concerning when high fire risk overlaps with weather patterns, like strong, dry winds, that accelerate fire spread,” she said.

“This is exactly what’s happening in Southern California right now. The Santa Ana winds … are combining with extremely flammable vegetation, causing high fire risk and extreme fire behavior with devastating consequences.”  

Political firestorm: Will wildfires influence US climate policies?

Beyond the immediate devastation, the ongoing wildfires in California have reignited fierce debate over US climate policies, especially with former President Donald Trump just days from his return to office.

Critics are deeply concerned that a second Trump administration would further undermine efforts to combat climate change, with expectations that he will rescind environmental regulations, repeal climate friendly acts, target agencies working on the problem, and encourage more coal and fossil fuel production.

Senator Bernie Sanders voiced his alarm on social media, posting on X: “80,000 people told to evacuate. Blazes 0% contained. Eight months since the area has seen rain. The scale of damage and loss is unimaginable. Climate change is real, not ‘a hoax.’ Donald Trump must treat this like the existential crisis it is.”

Trump has long dismissed climate change as a “hoax” and “scam,” pledging during his election campaign to withdraw from global climate agreements and roll back environmental protections.

During his first term, Trump pulled the US – the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases – out of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prioritized fossil fuel production over renewable energy initiatives.

Journalist Gabrielle Canon, writing for The Guardian, criticized Trump’s past handling of natural disasters, noting that he often politicized disaster relief and had a “poor record managing large wildfire emergencies.”

“Trump has a history of stalling in the aftermath of natural disasters, opting instead to put a political spin on who receives aid. For wildfires during his first term, that meant threatening California and other Democratic-majority states with delayed or withheld funding to punish them for their political leanings,” Canon wrote in November.

Adding to the urgency, the US recorded a historic number of “billion-dollar weather and climate disasters” in 2023 – 28 in total, surpassing the previous record of 22 in 2022, she added.