- Gulf states ‘are confronting a shared national security threat’ and ‘signaling that they are working to find off-ramps,’ says Anna Jacobs of the Arab Gulf States Institute
- Continuing threats to vital infrastructure could push Gulf governments to retaliation in the form of limited strikes on Iranian assets linked to the attacks, says Gulf security analyst Leonardo Mazzucco
ISTANBUL
As the US-Israel war with Iran spreads throughout the Middle East, Gulf countries facing repeated drone and missile attacks are trying to strike a delicate balance: protecting themselves while avoiding being pulled directly into a widening regional conflict.
Governments across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) say their priority is protecting their populations and critical infrastructure, as Iranian retaliatory strikes increasingly reach cities and energy facilities across the region.
“The Gulf states are pursuing a very cautious and calibrated strategy,” said Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco, a security analyst focusing on the region.
“Their goal is to defend their territory and critical infrastructure while avoiding being drawn directly into the broader conflict.”
Since the US and Israel started their attacks on Iran, hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles have been intercepted across GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman.
Several Gulf governments say civilian infrastructure has also been targeted, including airports, oil facilities and desalination plants.
Anna Jacobs, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said the countries of the region are confronting a shared security challenge.
“There are important differences between all the Gulf states but right now they are confronting a shared national security threat,” she said.
“They are all signaling that they are working to find off-ramps and to de-escalate as much as they can.”
Still, analysts say GCC states are not following a single unified strategy.
Ali Bakir, an assistant professor of international affairs, security and defense at Qatar University, said countries are largely relying on their own defensive capabilities while supporting each other politically.
“They largely rely on their individual defense capabilities while expressing strong support for one another,” Bakir said.
“Their calculations are based on the understanding that they are equipped to defend themselves and can absorb the negative financial and economic implications of the conflict.”
He added that Gulf governments are wary of becoming part of a war they neither initiated nor want.
Pressure for retaliation
For now, Gulf countries are not participating in the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. But analysts say the situation could shift if attacks on Gulf territory continue.
Mazzucco said governments have emphasized their right to self-defense.
“This position leaves open the possibility of strikes against Iranian territory if the attacks continue or escalate.”
Bakir warned that sustained attacks could strain missile defense systems and increase the financial cost of defending the region’s airspace.
“Consequently, they would come under immense pressure to shift their strategy from defense to offense,” he said.
“If they ultimately choose this path, it would be because Iran forced their hand.”
Even then, Bakir said Gulf states would likely limit their response rather than fully joining the US-Israeli campaign.
Still, he added, the US and Israel “will seek to frame this as joining their side in a unified front against Iran, which is not the case as it does not reflect the true intentions of the GCC states.”
Mazzucco also warned that repeated attacks on key infrastructure could push governments closer to retaliation.
“Desalination plants are essential lifelines for Gulf societies ... If Iranian strikes increasingly target this type of critical infrastructure, Gulf states may feel compelled to respond with carefully calibrated offensive actions.”
A study published in the science journal Nature in January said the MENA region accounts for nearly 42% of global operational desalination capacity, with approximately 5,000 plants producing almost 29 million cubic meters of water per day for one of the world’s most water-stressed areas.
Such responses, Mazzucco added, would likely involve limited strikes against Iranian military assets linked to the attacks, rather than joining the broader air campaign.
Other possible measures to pressure Iran include economic options, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the UAE is weighing freezing billions of dollars of Iranian assets held in the Gulf state.
Gulf states have “signaled that they would be willing to use economic pressure against Iran before military pressure, like the UAE limiting vital economic ties,” said Jacobs.
Diplomatic efforts to limit escalation
Alongside defensive measures, Gulf governments are also trying to reduce tensions through diplomacy, with leaders across the region repeatedly calling for de-escalation and negotiations.
Diplomatic coordination has also increased. Ministers from the GCC and EU held an emergency meeting last week to discuss the crisis and called on Iran to halt attacks on Arab countries.
Bakir said that although Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar possess some of the region’s most advanced fighter aircraft, they appear determined to avoid a direct confrontation with Iran.
“To prevent such a scenario, the GCC states will continue to urge all involved parties to halt hostilities and return to the negotiation table,” he said.
Mazzucco added that Gulf governments have also been careful in their public messaging.
“They have repeatedly clarified that they do not allow the US to launch strikes from their territory. They have also firmly pushed back against allegations that they are participating in the US-Israel air campaign,” he said.
Air defenses under pressure
Since the start of the war, Gulf countries have relied heavily on air-defense systems to intercept incoming missiles and drones.
Data from officials and the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) suggest that Iran carried out more than 700 ballistic and cruise missile attacks on Arab countries and Israel during the first eight days of the war. Around 60% of the strikes targeted American assets, while roughly 40% were directed toward Israel.
In addition, analysts estimate that more than 2,000 drones have been launched from Iran toward Arab countries and Israel since the conflict began.
Mazzucco said the region’s defense systems were designed to handle sustained attacks.
“Their defense architecture is heavily oriented toward air warfare and has been designed as a layered system capable of handling sustained attack campaigns,” he said.
“While precise figures are difficult to confirm independently, the available information suggests that their defensive systems have been largely effective in protecting major cities and strategic facilities.”
Still, sustaining this level of defense over time could become difficult.
“Standard air defense practice often involves firing two interceptors per incoming hostile projectile in order to ensure a successful interception. Over time, this can accelerate the depletion of missile inventories during prolonged campaigns,” said Mazzucco.
To reduce pressure on expensive interceptor missiles, he added, Gulf militaries are also using other tools to counter drones and low-cost aerial threats: “Qatar has deployed surface combatants to intercept aerial threats approaching coastal areas, while the UAE has used AH-64 Apache attack helicopters to hunt down Shahed-type drones.”
