• Experts stress that control of corridors and logistics remains critical to sustaining gains

ISTANBUL

Sudan’s army appears to be regaining momentum in its nearly three-year war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), as shifting regional alliances and increased military backing tilt the balance on the battlefield, analysts say.

Last week, the Sudanese Armed Forces said it ended a nearly two-year siege imposed by the RSF on the city of Dilling in South Kordofan, with the military saying it had inflicted heavy losses in personnel and equipment.

Analysts attribute the gains to stronger political and military backing from regional allies.

Sudanese analyst and journalist Eiad Husham said developments in Yemen, alongside growing political and military support for Sudan’s army, have helped it regain momentum in recent months.

He added that diplomatic visits by Sudan’s leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to other regional capitals have also strengthened the army’s position, predicting that the “Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) will have the upper hand” in the ongoing conflict.

The war erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the RSF, displacing millions and triggering one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Of Sudan’s 18 states, the RSF controls all five in the Darfur region in the west, excluding some northern parts of North Darfur that remain under army control.

The army, in turn, holds most areas of the remaining 13 states, including the capital Khartoum.

Advances on the ground

In recent days, fighting between the two sides has intensified, especially across Sudan’s three Kordofan states, where the army says it has made advances.

“The SAF, with tactics and weapons equal or similar to what the RSF has, can take the places they lost in Kordofan, and they can push for Darfur,” Husham told Anadolu.

Geopolitical risk analyst Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, said he would treat Kordofan and Darfur as “two different wars inside the same war.”

“Kordofan is where the Sudanese Armed Forces can plausibly generate momentum because it sits at the hinge between the center and the west,” he said.

According to Krieg, if the army can hold and expand control over key road corridors, protect garrisons and keep its logistics functioning, it can continue to make incremental gains.

That would not amount to a decisive victory, he said, but could shift the war’s balance by constraining RSF mobility and limiting its ability to project power eastward.

Both analysts said retaking Darfur would be harder.

According to Krieg, the RSF’s comparative advantage has long been its “embedded coercive networks, local revenue streams and cross-border depth.”

“Even if the SAF can push into parts of Darfur or contest specific towns, holding territory there requires more than offensives and airstrikes,” he said. “It requires reliable ground partners, secure supply lines and enough administrative capacity to prevent areas from sliding back under RSF control once the army moves on.”

Arms deals and new weapons

Experts say recent arms negotiations and the arrival of new equipment have improved the army’s position, especially as the war has become increasingly shaped by drones, air defenses and long-range strikes.

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) monitoring group, there were 472 drone strikes in Sudan in 2025 – up 70% from 2024 and 210% from 2023.

According to media reports, Pakistan is in the final stages of negotiating a $1.5 billion arms deal with Sudan, including the possible supply of JF-17 fighter jets.

Husham added that when the UAE provided RSF with air defense systems around Darfur and Kordofan, it became more difficult for the army to use jets and drones because aircraft could be shot down. The UAE denies allegations that it arms the RSF.

With the army expected to receive new aircraft and other systems, Husham said it could regain some degree of air superiority, though he warned training and integration would take time.

“It’s not going to be a fast delivery,” Husham said. “The whole package is big, and they need to train the pilots.”

Meanwhile, other countries have also expanded defense cooperation with Sudan’s army.

In December, Egypt pushed to activate a joint defense agreement with Sudan after a meeting between President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and al-Burhan in Cairo, according to Sudanese statements.

Regional backing grows

According to Husham, regional tensions, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen, have increasingly affected the conflict in Sudan, with the army now receiving stronger political backing from some regional countries.

In late 2025, Saudi-Emirati tensions sharpened in Yemen, where Riyadh struck UAE-backed southern forces and supply routes. The UAE later announced a withdrawal of remaining units, highlighting diverging priorities among former coalition partners.

Husham pointed to recent political developments, including talks between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and US President Donald Trump, as well as Riyadh hosting al-Burhan in recent months.

Al-Burhan also met Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in December, where Burhan expressed his wish to see Türkiye included in the international Quad mechanism – a diplomatic grouping of the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE that aims to support efforts to end the war and restore peace and stability in Sudan.

Pressure on supply lines

The army and its regional backers have also intensified efforts to disrupt the RSF’s supply lines, particularly routes running through Chad and Libya.

According to the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, smuggling networks in Libya and Chad were reactivated after the war erupted in April 2023, enabling the movement of weapons and vehicles into Darfur.

As pressure mounted along eastern Chadian routes in 2024, supply operations shifted back toward Libya, with the refurbishment of the Ma’aten al-Sarah air base creating a new corridor designed to bypass interdictions.

Analysts say ports in Somalia, including Bosaso, have also served as transit points for RSF supplies, but Mogadishu recently cancelled security and defense agreements with the UAE linked to several ports.

Yet Husham said a full shutdown of RSF supply routes would require far greater military capability.

“The SAF will need to create a no-fly zone, close the borders with drones and fighter jets,” he said.

Krieg said that while RSF logistics are being pressured, they have not been broken.

“The RSF has an adaptive logistics model that is designed to survive scrutiny: diversified corridors, compartmented procurement, reliance on commercial intermediaries and monetization of commodities, especially gold, to maintain cash flow," he said.

Sudan is Africa's third-largest gold producer, and despite the war, production has been reportedly surging – helping finance an influx of weapons on both sides. The dynamic has been intensified by a global surge in gold prices, which hit an all-time high value on Jan. 29.

Experts warned that even if the balance shifts on the battlefield, the conflict is unlikely to end soon.

“With the dynamics we see in the region, I don’t think we are going to reach a ceasefire soon,” Husham said. “Unfortunately, I think this war will go on.”