- As France hands back another base in Africa, experts question the future of its security cooperation on the continent and whether it can salvage its waning influence
- ‘There is clearly scope for developing new patterns of military partnership through training and technical support, but it will take time,’ says International Crisis Group’s Jean-Herve Jezequel
- Along with historical grievances over French colonial brutalities, ‘security, political and geopolitical dynamics’ are key factors in anti-French push, says political analyst Ovigwe Eguegu
ISTANBUL
As France officially handed over its only military base in Ivory Coast on Thursday, the ceremony marked another phase in the former colonizer’s diminishing presence in Africa.
Over the past few years, France and its military have been steadily pushed out from several African nations, and just days ago, it held talks with Senegal to set up a commission to organize the departure of its troops.
France had nearly 1,000 troops stationed in Ivory Coast, following the establishment of a military base in 2015, with 350 more deployed in Senegal under the French Elements of Senegal (EFS) since 2011.
Following expulsions from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, French troops now remain solely in Djibouti and Gabon, two countries that have not yet signaled any intention to alter their stance on military cooperation with Paris.
However, the broader trend is a regional shift away from France, and as Paris reassesses its military footprint in Africa, analysts debate the future of its security cooperation on the continent and whether it can salvage its waning influence.
Jean-Herve Jezequel, Sahel project director at the International Crisis Group, sees these developments as a historic turning point.
He explained that this is not the first instance of French troop withdrawals from African nations, recalling similar events in the 1960s when former French colonies gained independence.
“In the following decades, however, France managed to redevelop military agreement to redeploy troops,” he said.
While Jezequel acknowledged that the current wave of troop expulsions does not necessarily signify the complete end of French influence, he stressed that “it is a big move.”
Security, political, and geopolitical shifts
France’s military presence in Africa has been anchored in counterinsurgency operations, particularly through Operation Barkhane, launched in 2014 to combat militant groups in the Sahel. However, its effectiveness has been widely questioned.
Ovigwe Eguegu, a political analyst, highlighted that France’s military involvement in Africa dates back to 1850 when it first occupied coastal regions of Senegal. Until recently, its footprint had only expanded, he said.
“Today, countries in the region are ordering French troops to leave and ‘anti-French sentiment’ is the umbrella phrase cited as the reason. But that’s an oversimplification,” he said.
He explained that while historical grievances stemming from French colonial rule and economic exploitation play a role in this sentiment, “temporary security, political and geopolitical dynamics are driving the change in foreign policy attitude in the region.”
Eguegu pointed out that despite leading security initiatives such as the G5 Sahel and Operation Barkhane since 2013, “very little success has been achieved, with the situation only becoming worse in countries such as Burkina Faso.
He also noted a growing nationalist movement in West Africa, citing Chad’s justification for expelling French troops. “For instance, N’djamena’s stated reason for ordering the withdrawal of French troops was that Chad has ‘matured in its sovereignty,’” he said.
Jezequel echoed this view, saying that many African governments no longer see French military interventions as effective.
“It’s particularly clear in the Central Sahel … In their opinion, the French strategy against the insurgents was not functioning and the idea was to change the military alliances,” he said.
Mali, he pointed out, opted to shift its security alliance toward Moscow.
“There is this idea that the French way of fighting wars is actually not efficient, and more precisely, is also not really helping the national armies build up their capacities,” Jezequel said.
However, he emphasized that the removal of French troops is not solely a government-led initiative but also a direct response to public pressure, as the call for troop withdrawals has been a major demand from citizens across various nations.
In countries where the expulsion of French troops has taken place, “the people were in favor of the withdrawal,” he said.
Is there a way back for France?
The future of France’s security cooperation with African nations remains uncertain. Jezequel believes that in the short-term there cannot be any collaboration with the Central Sahel states – Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
As others such as Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Chad have indicated continued security ties, Jezequel suggested these partnerships could focus on “capacity training” rather than direct military involvement.
French involvement in the region could also be more through multilateral platforms, especially the EU, he added.
Paul Melly, a consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Africa Program, also believes that “training and technical partnerships look like the most effective way forward.”
“This was an approach the former Niger President Mohamed Bazoum was talking about before he was deposed in 2023,” he said.
This would also suit France, he said, as its military has serious commitments elsewhere, including reinforcing defenses in Europe in light of the threat from Russia.
On the diplomatic front, France’s case has not been helped by incidents such as President Emmanuel Macron’s widely panned remarks in January, where he said African countries had “forgotten to say thank you” for France’s anti-insurgency efforts in the Sahel.
Jezequel described the statement as a disaster, saying it has only fueled public outrage at France and forced French diplomats to do damage control.
Melly pointed out that the remarks were “widely felt to be not only stupid but bluntly arrogant,” and had caused “shock and offense.”
However, Eguegu believes France’s ties with African nations “can either go downhill from here or improve,” asserting that nothing is permanent in politics.
“With a change in attitudes and mutual understanding, both sides can work towards a mutual and equally beneficial relationship,” he said.
Jezequel emphasized that France must adopt a new, more respectful approach in its dealings with African nations.
“You cannot be the former colonial power and take the lead for everything when it comes to security. That doesn’t work,” he said.
“Long-term, there is clearly scope for developing new patterns of military partnership through training and technical support, but it will take time to build up both practical cooperation and the underlying trust and respect, particularly at the political level.”
