Would a united Nigeria survive Jonathan's presidency?

By Rafiu Ajakaye

LAGOS

Will Nigeria survive 2015 as a united country? The jury, it appears, is still out.

From festering crises in the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) due to President Goodluck Jonathan's rumored ambition to remain in office and the ongoing insurgency in the country's northeast, to rising crime blamed on soaring youth unemployment and simmering ethno-religious power struggles, many believe the country faces an uncertain future.

"Most of the conflicts that developed into full-blown war started with little political skirmishes and disagreements among politicians, which were not managed well," Moshood Erubami, former chairman of the Transition Monitoring Group, British West Africa's largest election-monitoring NGO, told Anadolu Agency.

"Today, we have examples of this in Rivers, Sokoto, Kwara and even Kano [states]," he added.

Senator Magnus Abe was recently shot at a rally organized by politicians opposed to President Jonathan in the city of Bori in Rivers State.

In the same week, members of the PDP and the opposition All Progressive Congress (APC) engaged in violent clashes in the northwestern Sokoto State.

Politicians exploited a recent suicide bombing – which killed at least 30 people in Borno State capital Maiduguri – to settle political scores.

Hundreds of youths said to be loyal to Borno Governor Kashim Shettima attacked the home of former governor Ali Modu-Sheriff, an APC chieftain, on claims that the latter had masterminded the bombing.

"The activities of the country's political class throw up challenges – Sokoto and Rivers are good examples," Kemi Okenyodo, executive director of the CLEEN Foundation, a local NGO, told AA.

"Rivers is further complicated by interference by the executive and the role being played by the police," Okenyodo added. "The police are presently being seen to be taking sides in the state."

CLEEN, which is devoted to judicial reform in Nigeria, has links with a number of global bodies, including the Altus Foundation.

Indeed, many believe history could repeat itself.

"The crisis that led to the 1966 coup started like this, because of the intolerance of the ruling party to the opposition and a lack of commitment to electoral integrity," Erubami cautioned.

In 1996 polls, the opposition Action Group reportedly won, especially in western Nigeria's Ondo State.

But rather than declaring the opposition party the winner, the electoral body instead gave the victory to the candidate representing the then-ruling National Party of Nigeria.

This led to widespread violence, which later became known as "wetie" – meaning "spray [with petrol] and burn." Several people were killed – and a number of homes and properties torched – in the violence.

At the time, there were also allegations of government corruption, along with disputes over census figures.

All this gave the military a pretext for ending the democratic process and carrying out Nigeria's first military coup.

-Presidency plot-

For many observers, all these violent incidents – in addition to the Boko Haram insurgency and a brewing crisis over a proposed national conference, which the president vowed would address all the country's outstanding ethno-religious and political issues – bode ill for the future.

Erubami, for his part, believes the conference could spark another round of crises if it leads to a second Jonathanpresidential term.

"People see it [the proposed conference] as a political masterstroke for tenure elongation," he said.

"The idea… is that if the conference is botched, the standoff arising therefrom could allow Jonathan to elongate his tenure," Erubami explained.

"He would have achieved his objective without any problem."

"If, on the other side, the political skirmishes in the states develop into a full-blown crisis, Nigerians will have played into the hands of the ruling party," the activist added. "Whichever way it's considered, it's a win-win situation for the ruling party."

"The way the president's handlers are going about his second [presidential] bid is a vital factor that could undermine the Nigerian project," he went on to warn.

"What is more is the attitude of politicians who are currently demonstrating that they haven't learnt anything from the history of political hiccups in Nigeria and elsewhere in the African region," Erubami added.

But PDP spokesman Olisa Metuh dismissed the scenario as "far-fetched and cruel to the president's good intentions."

"All these claims about Jonathan witch-hunting people or plotting against the public interest are false," he told AA.

"These are political narratives the opposition is pushing in the media."

"It's true that Nigeria is undergoing the challenge of nationhood and democracy, but I can assure you, we will emerge stronger and more united as a people," Metuh said.

"That's the agenda of the president."

-Leadership Crisis-

CLEEN chief Okenyodo believes that the combined threats of youth unemployment, religious intolerance and the alleged complicity of security agencies in the political crisis now rocking the country pose genuine dangers to Nigeria's continued existence.

"The survival of Nigeria as we move towards 2015 general elections is hinged on the federal government addressing some of the challenges we're now seeing," she told AA.

Okenyodo believes the country will face a major dilemma unless certain factors are addressed and politicians – from both the ruling party and the opposition – are denied the means of manufacturing crises.

"The high youth bulge in the country – which is further strengthened by other issues, such as illiteracy, unemployment and poverty – makes youths vulnerable to being used as tools in the hands of politicians," she added.

Okenyodo insists there are no shortcuts to peace in Nigeria except good governance that serves the people and doesn't attempt to marginalize any segment of society.

"The main reason these issues are being thrown up in our country is due to the failure of good governance and the lack of integrity," she said.

Yinusa Yau, a respected democracy activist based in the northwestern Kano State, says crises in Nigeria are numerous but are, at the same time, "overhyped" by people who he claims want to benefit from the country's woes.

"As for US predictions, I take it as salesmanship of those who want to have full control of Nigeria's oilwells," he told AA.

"They hype the threats and in fact attempt to manipulate the situation so that they can take control of our security apparatus with the sole purpose of securing for themselves a supply of cheap oil," Yau said.

The US recently warned of the possible balkanization of Nigeria ahead of scheduled 2015 polls.

Yau said that whether Nigeria would survive Jonathan's presidency and the looming elections would depend on how politicians handled the challenges ahead.

"I have no doubt that Nigeria will survive the Jonathanpresidency," Yau, a survivor of Nigeria's military gulags of the 80s and 90s, said – but he added a caveat.

"Of course how it survives will depend on a number of things, primary among which are the ability of nationalists across the country to mobilize and push for pan-Nigerian solutions," he added.

"Second is the self-enlightened interest of the ruling class to recognize that it's in their own interest that they put their house in order," he stressed.

"As for Boko Haram and other violent challenges, Nigerians are increasingly becoming convinced that their security lies not with the government, but in collective action," Yau asserted.

"Once that gains momentum, they will be able to get round these problems," he added.

"Impunity thrives only when people are passive about its consequences."

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