• China reached a peak in Arctic exploration last summer with a 56-day mission using a deep-sea manned submersible

• Beijing says it opposes the US using China as ‘pretext’ for ‘selfish’ Arctic ambitions

ISTANBUL

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly framed Greenland as a national security imperative, arguing that US control of the vast Arctic island is necessary to counter growing Russian and Chinese influence in the region.

Trump has warned European allies that failure to back his position could trigger negative consequences, portraying the issue as a matter of “world peace” and Arctic stability. His rhetoric has unsettled NATO partners, particularly Denmark, which retains sovereignty over Greenland, home to about 56,000 people.

The US president argues that control of the resource-rich island is essential to prevent Moscow and Beijing from expanding their Arctic footprint, even at the cost of straining transatlantic ties.

But analysts say Trump’s portrayal of China as an imminent Arctic security threat does not align with Beijing’s actual capabilities or intentions.

Beijing-based Asia analyst Einar Tangen said China has “neither the capability nor the willingness to intervene militarily” in the region.

According to Institute for China-America Studies policy expert Sourabh Gupta, Trump’s China-focused argument instead reveals Washington’s concerns about Beijing’s growing global influence.

“It tells us the US sees itself in geopolitical, geo-economic and security competition with China,” he said.

China’s current presence in the Arctic

Under Trump, US officials have accused China of taking “deliberate, steady steps” to assert itself in the Arctic, citing a rise in Chinese vessels operating in polar waters. The US Department of Homeland Security has described China’s presence in the region as “unprecedented.”

Last October, Beijing announced that a Chinese scientific expedition had completed a 56-day mission in the Arctic Ocean, supported by the research vessel Tansuo-3 and the Fendouzhe deep-sea manned submersible.

Beijing said the mission’s findings are expected to support research on rapid Arctic climate change and the adaptability of polar life. It also validated the operational capacity of the vessels.

Some Western media have raised concerns about the mission’s implications.

“Chinese research submarines for the first time traveled thousands of feet beneath the Arctic ice this summer, a technical feat with chilling military and commercial implications for America and its allies,” The Wall Street Journal reported last month.

China formally declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in 2018, despite being located more than 1,450 kilometers (900 miles) from the Arctic Circle.

Tangen said China’s Arctic engagement focuses on “scientific research, sustainable development and cooperative infrastructure” under its Polar Silk Road initiative, adding that these activities are conducted within international legal frameworks.

China bases its Arctic presence on universal maritime rights under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, specific territorial agreements such as Svalbard, and participation in regional forums like the Arctic Council, Tangen said.

“Its official strategy is to frame its scientific, commercial and diplomatic activities within these established legal boundaries,” said Tangen, who has been based in China for more than two decades.

Beijing pushes back

China has rejected Washington’s portrayal of its Arctic activities as a security threat.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Beijing opposes the US using China and Russia as a “pretext” for what she described as Washington’s “selfish” Arctic ambitions.

“The Arctic region bears on the common interests of the international community, and China’s activities in the Arctic region are conducive to peace and stability and sustainable development and … international law,” she said in a press briefing earlier this month.

“All countries’ right and freedom to carry (out) activities in the region should be fully respected,” she added.

Gupta said Trump’s Greenland rhetoric reflects a broader US effort to preserve strategic primacy in the Western Hemisphere rather than a response to genuine Chinese security competition.

“China was never interested in security competition against the US in the Western Hemisphere,” he said, adding that Beijing’s focus has been commercial expansion, particularly in Latin America.

Tangen argued that portraying China as a malign Arctic actor provides political cover for actions that could violate Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination.

“It is not as a genuine security concern, but a calculated ploy to seize territory and resources that junks the rules-based international order,” he said.

The role of NATO

Analysts warned that any non-consensual absorption of Greenland would severely damage NATO.

“Greenland is, after all, covered by NATO and the United States is the most important security player within NATO,” Gupta said. “If Greenland is such an important priority, the US could easily devote greater resources to its defense. But Trump doesn’t want to defend Greenland within the framework of NATO; he wants to secure it unilaterally as part of US territory.”

Backing away from previous threats, Trump on Wednesday said he would not use force against Greenland and has claimed to have reached an understanding with NATO on the issue. The details have not been revealed.

Tangen said a forcible takeover would trigger global realignments, diplomatically isolate Washington and hand Moscow a strategic opportunity by fracturing NATO from within.

“For China, it would be another confirmation that the US is a rogue state operating on ‘might-makes-right’ principles,” he said. “For Europe, this would be an existential attack on the foundations of the transatlantic alliance.”

Ali Wyne, a senior adviser on US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, warned that Trump’s earlier threat to expand US territory ‘the easy way or the hard way’ could have far-reaching consequences.

“If the world’s lone superpower argues that might makes right, it should not be surprised when Russia, China and others follow suit,” Wyne told Anadolu.