- ‘All nuclear weapons states have been investing quite a lot of money in nuclear weapon systems. So … dynamics is definitely there, which is quite worrying,’ Nakamitsu says

DOHA 

The world is entering a new arms race fueled by intensifying great-power rivalry, and the threat of nuclear use has reached its most dangerous level in decades, the UN disarmament chief said.

In an interview with Anadolu on the sidelines of the Doha Forum, Izumi Nakamitsu, the UN under-secretary-general and high representative for disarmament affairs, said global security has sharply deteriorated as major powers expand and modernize their arsenals.

“I'm afraid we are actually starting to see an arms race dynamics already. And what's driving that is obviously, the major military powers competing with each other,” Nakamitsu said.

She emphasized that although the Russia-Ukraine war accelerated global insecurity, the trend began earlier as nuclear-armed states invested heavily in modernization.

The UN disarmament chief said: “The security considerations have shifted, especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But this dynamics of arms race actually had started before Ukraine. I think there have already been quite several years of investment in what we call a nuclear weapons modernization programs.”

“I mean, all nuclear weapons states have been investing quite a lot of money in nuclear weapon systems. So, I'm afraid the dynamics is definitely there, which is quite worrying.”

She said: “I think the risk of nuclear weapons actually being used in conflict is at its highest since the depths of the Cold War.”

“Nuclear weapons states really need to understand that unless they exercise restraints, work on risk reduction measures and make sure that they prevent the use of nuclear weapons, I think we could actually end up in a very disastrous situation.

Disarmament: Possible only through dialogue

While acknowledging that nuclear reductions are unlikely in the near term, Nakamitsu stressed that disarmament goes far beyond cutting warhead numbers.

“It's probably a very difficult proposition to ask for the actual reduction of nuclear weapons at the moment. But disarmament doesn't only mean just a reduction of arsenals,” she said.

She outlined a phased approach – mutual restraint, transparency, confidence-building measures, and renewed dialogue – to rebuild the political space needed for arms-control agreements.

“Build further confidence and create a pathway, if you will, return to nuclear disarmament discussions and negotiations.

“So not immediately probably reductions per se, but there are other varieties of means in the disarmament toolbox that would lead us to a path back towards nuclear disarmament,” the UN disarmament chief said.

How to lower nuclear risk now

Nakamitsu underscored the urgency of concrete risk-reduction steps amid rising tensions. “I think it's in everyone's interest to have risk reduction measures.”

This includes reliable crisis-communication channels to prevent escalation. “If there is a sign of escalation, there is good communication channels open to de-escalate so that it would not lead to an uncontrollable escalation,” she said, calling such systems “very important.”

“This is in the interest of everyone, all nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states as well, because when it comes to nuclear weapons, it concerns everyone's security.”

Wars in Gaza and Ukraine eroding trust

Nakamitsu said the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have had “a profound impact” on global disarmament efforts.

"The multilateral international discussions are quite complex in the sense that they cannot be just a group of states engaged with each other. Across the board, all states have to be involved in those conversations.”

“Conflict and wars and violations of humanitarian principles in one region actually have an impact on all of the other issues, especially when the Global South looks at these issues as a double standard,” she said. “Then the trust that is really required for multilateral discussions and negotiations will be eroded.”

Nakamitsu warned that this erosion threatens key processes, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review cycle.

“We need to make sure that there is that order protected. Further erosion will be backfiring on everyone's security," she said.

With the next NPT Review Conference set for 2026, Nakamitsu urged leaders to prioritize it diplomatically.

"Next year is really important because we have the review conference of the NPT," she said, stressing that the treaty is “the critical pillar… of all the nuclear weapons-related regime.”

She called on world leaders to approach the conference with a willingness to compromise.

Leaders must “come to the NPT review conference with shared interest to producing an outcome document,” Nakamitsu said, emphasizing the need for restraint and common ground.

“So diplomacy, reinvesting diplomacy, dialogue and in the spirit of common interests, that is international security for all of us," she said.