ISTANBUL

The most wide-ranging modelling to date suggests that reductions in overseas aid could result in over 22 million preventable deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under five.

Researchers writing in The Lancet Global Health note that child deaths from infectious diseases have dropped sharply over the past 20 years, largely because donor-funded programs supported health efforts in developing countries.

However, they warn that sudden funding cuts by donors such as the US and UK could undo much of that progress.

To estimate the impact, the team analyzed how changes in aid levels related to death rates in recipient countries from 2002 to 2021, then projected outcomes under three scenarios: a status quo scenario, a mild reduction where aid declines similarly to recent years, and a severe reduction where aid falls to roughly half of 2025 levels through the end of the decade.

In the severe scenario, the model projects about 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million among children under five.

Under mild reductions, the estimate is 9.4 million excess deaths, with 2.5 million of those being young children.

Lead author Prof. Davide Rasella of ISGlobal said the mild scenario is plausible given current trends, while the more extreme scenario aligns with proposals from right-leaning parties gaining influence in several countries, such as Reform UK, which has floated cutting Britain’s aid budget by a further 90%, according to The Guardian.

Several major donors, including Germany, the US, and Sweden, have announced substantial cuts.

The US reduced aid spending by more than half in 2025, from $68 billion to $32 billion.

The UK plans to lower aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP by 2028 to help pay for higher defense spending.

Overall, the researchers estimate that past aid has been associated with a 39% drop in under-five mortality, with especially strong impacts on deaths from infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria, as well as from malnutrition-related deficiencies.