ISTANBUL

Nature-based restoration approaches that strengthen ecosystems and reduce risks at their source are increasingly replacing traditional, crisis-driven interventions as extreme weather events become more frequent due to climate change.

Mikdat Kadioglu, a meteorological engineering professor at Istanbul Technical University (ITU), told Anadolu that, scientifically, disaster risk is defined as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability.

He noted that earthquakes, floods and storms are natural phenomena, while settlement patterns and preparedness levels are shaped by human decisions.

Citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2022 report, which shows a 40-50% global increase in extreme weather events, Kadioglu said climate change is intensifying floods and prolonged droughts across Türkiye.

"Calling this fate under these conditions means rejecting science, since what was once exceptional is now the new normal,” he said.

Referring to the growing scale of such events, he added that according to 2025 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) data, 90% of global losses now stem from multi-hazard incidents.

Every Turkish lira spent before disaster prevents 15 liras in losses in Türkiye

Kadioglu emphasized that preventive investment in disaster management is the most economically rational strategy.

"According to the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) and World Bank data, 1 lira spent before a disaster prevents between 7 and 15 liras in losses. For Türkiye, this ratio is expressed as 1 to 15. This shows that disaster management is not an expense but a strategic investment that protects development," he said.

He also noted that the annual cost of meteorological disasters runs into billions of liras, while the share of local government budgets allocated to disaster and climate adaptation is generally below 1%. That figure, he said, should be at least 2-3%, rising to 5% in the long term.

"In Izmir, water retention capacity was increased by 30% through stream rehabilitation and green space landscaping, reducing flood-related losses by 25%. The sponge city implementation in Rotterdam reduced flood risk by 30%.

“The damage rate in buildings reinforced after the 2011 Van Earthquake decreased by 40%. Every 1 dollar invested in early warning systems prevents between 7 and 10 dollars in losses," he said.

Kadioglu stressed that the savings extend beyond structural damage, encompassing debris removal, temporary shelter, income losses and psychosocial support.

Nature-based solutions increase resilience by 30%

According to IPCC AR6 reports, nature-based solutions can boost disaster resilience by up to 30%, Kadioglu further said.

Green infrastructure, he added, is more adaptable than reinforced concrete in coping with floods and heat waves, while also supporting carbon sequestration, biodiversity and mitigating the urban heat island effect.

He warned that the most serious mistakes in post-disaster reconstruction occur during planning and site selection.

"With the pressure to return to normal and in haste, buildings are rebuilt in the same risky locations based on past statistics rather than future climate projections.

“Scientific processes such as seismic microzonation, ground motion amplification, and liquefaction potential analyses are ignored, and climate change scenarios are not integrated into reconstruction designs," he said.

Describing preventive policy as both an economic and moral imperative, Kadioglu said he compiled detailed guidance for decision-makers in his recent book. "True success is not clearing debris, but preventing debris from forming in the first place," he added.

*Writing by Zeynep Ozturhan