ISTANBUL
By Nilay Kar Onum
Turkey’s largest city has had one hell of a summer: back-to-back downpours; sudden storms; enormous hailstones and even two tornadoes. Now, as winter approaches, weathermen are suggesting the city is expected to see even more extreme conditions.
“More rain and potentially more dangerous conditions [like floods and wind damage] are expected for the coming months and throughout winter,” says Nihat Cubukcu, a senior scientist at the U.S.-based Weather Predict Consulting.
Since late spring of this year, Turkey and some of the Balkan countries have been hit by frequent severe weather due to “realigned upper level wind streams,” he claims.
Thousands of people had to be evacuated from low-lying areas of the Balkans last week after rivers swollen by heavy rains burst their banks. The floods threatened lowland areas in which more than 40 people died in May - the worst recorded floods in the area in 120 years.
Istanbul saw heavy rain fall on June 2, July 19 and July 21 this year disrupting life by causing flash flooding and prompting road closures across Turkey's largest city.
In June a tornado struck the eastern Tuzla district capsizing boats, damaging buildings and uprooting trees, narrowly avoiding any fatalities.
On the same day as the Tuzla tornado, walnut-sized hailstones and heavy rain fell on the Kartal district on Istanbul’s Asian side, leaving pedestrians stranded and causing floods.
August also witnessed hours of rain and booming thunderstorms, causing havoc.
“As a result of realigned upper-level wind streams, almost all of Turkey has received significant amount of rain since late spring. One of the main reasons for this realignment is the prolonged high pressure center covering Eastern Europe and most of eastern Russia,” Cubukcu says.
Turkish television meteorologist Bunyamin Surmeli agrees: “We may have extreme weather conditions again by the end of this year.”
Surmeli – who believes the reason behind extreme weather conditions is climate change – also complains that it affects seasonal predictions.
“Consistency and foreseeability are decreasing for long-term forecasts because of the effects of climate change,” Surmeli says.
However, Turkey and Istanbul are not expected to see much rain and snow after December, he claims.
“We don’t predict rain or snow so much this winter but again it will not be as arid as it was last year. We expect a colder winter compared to last year.”
Neither snow nor rain fell in January and February last year, two months which usually see wet weather.
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