INTERVIEW: The Middle East in 2018

By Elif Selin Calik

ISTANBUL

Strategist on the Middle East and political advisor Dr. Hussain Ali Bakeer said more Arab countries witnessed uprisings because of the troubled economy in 2018.
In an exclusive interview, Dr. Bakeer spoke to Anadolu Agency on “The Middle East in 2018”.
Question: 2018 was a momentous year for the Middle East. What is your general evaluation of the Middle East in 2018?

Dr. Bakeer: In a region such as the Middle East, is hard to be optimistic. So far, the year is closing with an increasing list of failed states, more Arab countries are witnessing protests amid the hard-economic circumstances, freedoms are under unprecedented pressure, and wars are becoming the norm. Just couple days ago, one of your colleagues, Tunisian journalist burned himself to death for protesting the economical conditions in his country. Despite all this, we don’t have any other choice but to hope that 2019 will be better than 2018.

"Yemen in need of a democratic election"

Question: The U.N. announced in early 2018 that Yemen was the sight of the worst humanitarian disaster in the world today. Yemen peace talks started in Sweden after nearly 4 years of deadly conflict in 2018. What are the good and the bad in the new peace agreement on Yemen? Is peace Yemen is within reach?

Dr. Bakeer: The peace agreement between the warring parties in Yemen is a welcomed progress of course, but unfortunately it doesn’t mean that peace in Yemen is within reach right now. The agreement is fragile, and includes many ambiguous points that are needed to be clarified. Most importantly, without exerting international pressure on both sides supporting the conflicting Yemeni parties - Saudi Arabia and UAE from one hand, Iran from another-, Yemenis will continue to suffer. There will be urgent need to focus on the humanitarian aspect of the crisis in the coming period and to empower the legitimate authorities in Yemen. Yemeni people should shape their own country with a democratic election.

" Israel's illegal acts continued in 2018"

Question: On the last days of 2018, Israeli authorities just advanced plans for nearly 2,200 settlement homes in occupied West Bank an NGO - Peace Dog and Israeli media said. How should we read this in terms of the Middle East politics?
Dr. Bakeer: This is very typical. Israel is a country which was founded by invading other people’s lands, houses and establishing settlements. Israel’s settlements are illegal by every single aspect of the international law. Israel government continued the illegal acts in 2018, too. The fact that Tel-aviv is still able to advance its settlement policies. It is a sign of the great failure of the international community to carry out its responsibilities. This includes the Islamic countries and the Arab countries in particular. Such Israeli policies will keep the struggle with the Palestinians alive, and I can’t see Israel winning on the long run by any means.

Question: Jerusalem Post reported that hours after attack near Damascus Netanyahu said Israel acting against Iranian entrenchment in Syria 'during these days' despite Trump's decision. What does Trump’s withdrawal from Syria in 2018 means for Israel and YPG?

Dr. Bakeer: When it comes to Israel, I think the withdrawal of the U.S. from Syria will push Tel-aviv to increase its military activities against the Iranian presence in that country fearing that Tehran might utilize the vacuum to fortify its presence in Syria and use it as a regional base for its entrenchment. For YPG, the withdrawal of the U.S. will deprive the Syrian wing of the PKK from its separatist projects in Northern Syria. It might also push them to go back to their original job as a tool for Assad regime.

"No concrete steps taken at the GCC Summit"

Question: In 2018, Saudi Arabia hosted Gulf summit amid Qatar tension, Khashoggi crisis. Do you think that this summit ended with a roadmap to resolve ongoing crisis in the region? What are the unlearned lessons of Jamal Khashoggi's murder and Qatar tension?

Dr. Bakeer: Nothing serious happened at the last GCC Summit in Riyadh. No concrete steps were taken to solve the Gulf crisis. In fact, the crisis was totally ignored. I think the crisis will most probably stay unless a direct pressure is exerted by the US administration on Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to end the blockade and normalize the relations. But even if we assumed that this scenario is going to occur in 2019, it is very much hard to expect that trust will be restored as long as MBS and MBZ are in power.

"EU can’t save Iran in 2019"

Question: Trump reimposed the sanctions to Iran in 2018. Will Trump's Iran sanctions work in 2019? Can EU countries avoid Trump's Iran sanctions?

Dr. Bakeer: Trump is proved to be untraditional president, he is unpredictable and unstable. Resignation of Mattis makes things even more ambiguous when it comes to Iran. I can’t see a concrete US strategy to deal with Iran, but in general, sanctions can be tightened throughout the 2019 and EU can’t save Iran. Because, their companies have much bigger interest at the end of the day with Washington. Unless EU is going to convince Iran to change its regional behavior and address its missile program, things might escalate in 2019.