ANKARA 

After weeks of relentless attacks, Russia claims it has secured a major win in Ukraine by capturing the port city of Mariupol. 

Mariupol covers just a tiny area on the map, belying its immense significance for both Ukraine and Russia.

From military advantages to vital land connectivity and a much-needed morale boost, there are several reasons why the port city’s fall could be a strategic victory for Russia and a devastating blow for Ukraine.  

Land corridor

Mariupol lies between Crimea, the region illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014, and Donbas, an area where Kyiv has been fighting secessionist elements for years.

With Mariupol under its control, there is nothing to stop Russia from establishing a land corridor linking Crimea and Donbas.

This land bridge will enable Russia to unite its military elements in Crimea and the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson with the separatist forces in the east, allowing it to expand its military offensive deeper into Ukraine.

Russia can also now redeploy its troops from Mariupol to other areas where Ukrainian resistance still needs to be quelled.  

Vital port, industrial hub

The port of Mariupol, which lies on the Sea of Azov, part of the Black Sea, has undeniable importance for the Ukrainian economy, serving as a major trade hub that handles essential exports and imports.

According to Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to the Ukrainian president, Russia’s war has already forced some 50% of Ukrainian businesses to shut down.

Losing Mariupol and its economic clout could prove to be a death blow to the already teetering Ukrainian economy.

With Crimea already annexed, the loss of Mariupol will leave some 75% of the entire Ukrainian coastline under Russian control, and Kyiv’s only route to the Black Sea will be through the southwestern port of Odessa.

Ukraine is a net exporter of various agricultural products and the disruption in supplies caused by the war has wreaked havoc on global markets.

Many countries dependent on imports of food and agricultural commodities from Ukraine are already contending with crippling shortages.

In that context, the loss of Mariupol will have global ramifications – Ukraine’s inability to ship out its goods will only worsen the food shortages being faced in multiple countries in the Middle East and northern Africa, such as Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Libya, Yemen, Tunisia, Egypt and others.

Furthermore, Mariupol is also one of Ukraine’s most important industrial zones, playing a vital role in production and also export of iron and steel.

Losing these critical exports will be a major blow for Ukraine and its ravaged economy, and may well dent its ability to resist the unrelenting Russian offensive. 

The Azov factor and boost for Russian morale

Another factor that adds to Mariupol’s significance is that it is seen as the headquarters of the infamous Azov Battalion, also known as the Azov Brigade.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu has previously referred to the city as the “capital” of the Azov Battalion, a group that figures high on Moscow’s purported list of targets in its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Russia has accused the group of having nationalists and far-right radicals within its ranks, using it as one of the pretexts to justify the war, which it says is also aimed at the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine.

Neutralizing the Azov Battalion in a city seen as its stronghold will be a symbolic victory for Russia, and one that it will use to rally its own forces and public.

For Moscow, which has faced stiff resistance and suffered setbacks, claiming control of Mariupol will be a chance to give the Russian people the first major win of the ongoing war.

This will also give Moscow an opportunity to silence naysayers who have been questioning its military might as Russian forces struggled to make significant gains in Ukraine.