• Ukraine ‘remains closely connected to US-Russia dynamics,’ says Maksym Skrypchenko, head of Kyiv-based think tank Transatlantic Dialogue Center
• Trump’s priority would be US interests, potentially leading to bilateral deals with Russia in diplomatic, economic or even nuclear matters, says Skrypchenko

ISTANBUL

A new and potentially decisive phase of negotiations to end the Ukraine war will begin Friday when Donald Trump meets Vladimir Putin in Alaska – the first face-to-face encounter between the US and Russian presidents since the conflict erupted over three years ago.

The high-stakes meeting at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage will also mark the first direct talks between sitting US and Russian presidents since June 2021, when then-President Joe Biden met Putin in Geneva.

For Trump and Putin, their last bilateral meeting was in Osaka on the sidelines of the 2019 G20 summit.

Notably absent from the table will be Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. While Trump has said he might call Zelenskyy for a follow-up discussion depending on Friday’s outcome, the Alaska summit will be held without third parties, a format that has drawn concern in Kyiv.

The meeting comes after three recent rounds of renewed direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv in Istanbul – on May 16, June 2, and July 23 – which produced major prisoner swaps and draft memoranda outlining both sides’ positions for a future peace deal.

‘Five common principles’

In the lead-up to the summit, Zelenskyy engaged in intense diplomacy with the US and European allies. His most notable appearance came in a Berlin press conference alongside German Chancellor Friedrich Merz following a video conference with Trump and European leaders.

Zelenskyy said they agreed on five shared principles for ending the war, with an immediate ceasefire top of Ukraine’s priorities, as Kyiv insists that any substantive talks with Russia must begin only after hostilities halt.

He also stressed the need for reliable security guarantees, saying Trump voiced support for this during the video call and indicated Washington’s readiness to help provide such guarantees.

On territorial disputes, Zelenskyy reaffirmed that “the matter can only be discussed exclusively with Ukraine” – a stance he said all partners support – and rejected any withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from areas under Russian control.

Zelenskyy also reiterated that Moscow should have no veto over Ukraine’s NATO or EU membership aspirations, which have intensified since the war began in February 2022.

Pushing for a future trilateral format with himself, Trump and Putin, the Ukrainian leader stressed that sanctions should be increased if Russia refuses a ceasefire in Alaska. “These are effective principles, and it is important that they work,” he said.

‘Expectations remain low’ in Kyiv

Despite the diplomatic groundwork, expectations in Ukraine remain modest.

“Ukraine expects this meeting to be a potential step toward a peace solution, though expectations remain low,” Maksym Skrypchenko, president of the Kyiv-based think tank Transatlantic Dialogue Center, told Anadolu.

He argued that Putin’s strategy is to prolong the war through “endless, unproductive talks” aimed at delaying pressure on Russia, and that Trump should be wary of such tactics.

On whether Trump could safeguard Ukraine’s interests, Skrypchenko said the US president’s top priority would be his own country’s interests, potentially leading to bilateral deals with Russia in diplomatic, economic, or even nuclear matters.

“Ukraine is not formally part of that track – which is a major concern for Kyiv – but remains closely connected to US-Russia dynamics. From recent statements, Trump appears to want to act as a mediator to bring peace, while also understanding that Ukraine cannot be allowed to fall,” he said.

Skrypchenko added that Trump has an interest in a peaceful Europe actively trading with the US – “something impossible to achieve” while the Russia-Ukraine war continues.

‘European role now more important than ever’

On Europe’s role, Skrypchenko stressed that EU member states remain Ukraine’s primary source of financial and military support – a role he expects will continue.

“The European role is now more important than ever. While Putin reportedly despises and ignores Europe, the reality is that Europe must be at the table – the war is on their doorstep, and they are paying for it,” he said.

Europe’s stance on the summit has been one with subtle differences but a shared sense of unease: fear of being sidelined from peace talks that could imperil the continent’s security.

All countries but Hungary backed a joint EU statement Tuesday welcoming Washington’s push to end the war, but insisting that any deal must safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty and Europe’s security.

The Coalition of the Willing – co-chaired by Germany, France and the UK – also reiterated support for US efforts, while warning that “international borders must not be changed by force.”

Skrypchenko emphasized that Ukraine’s eventual EU membership makes the Alaska talks a direct concern for European leaders, who must consider how Kyiv would handle post-war economic recovery, humanitarian needs, and refugee challenges.

“The EU provides the funding; the US delivers military capabilities – both remain essential to Ukraine’s defense and to Europe’s security,” he added.