Politicians, analysts expect 'high turnout' for Egypt referendum

CAIRO

By Hagar al-Dosoki

As voting starts in a pivotal constitutional referendum, analysts and figures from across Egypt's non-Islamist political spectrum said they expected a high turnout and a majority "yes" vote in the country's first national poll since the army ousted elected president Mohamed Morsi last July.

"I expect a turnout of at least 40 percent," Gamal Abdel-Gawad, a political analyst at Egypt's state-run Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Anadolu Agency.

Abdel-Gawad said that a large segment of voters would endorse a revised version of Egypt's 2012 constitution as a means of registering their support for an army-backed political roadmap.

The roadmap was unveiled by army chief Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi in the wake of Morsi's July 3 ouster following protests against the latter's presidency.

Along with constitutional amendment, the roadmap calls for holding parliamentary and presidential elections before summer of this year.

"Another major segment of voters will approve the charter simply as a means of rejecting the Muslim Brotherhood," Abdel-Gawad added, referring to the 86-year-old Islamist group that propelled Morsi to power in 2012 presidential polls.

The draft constitution now being put to vote was prepared by a mostly-secular committee, members of which were handpicked by interim president Adly Mansour.

Most of Egypt's non-Islamist political parties have endorsed the revised charter.

Egypt's 2012 constitution was drafted by an Islamist-heavy constituent assembly whose members were chosen by Egypt's elected parliament, which was subsequently dissolved on orders of the military.

That charter was approved in a December 2012 referendum by 63.8 percent, with voter turnout put at 32.9 percent of those registered to cast ballots. It was suspended by the army on the day of Morsi's ouster.

"Based on everyday indications, I expect voter turnout will exceed that of 2012," Abdel-Ghaffar Shokr, head of Egypt's Socialist Popular Alliance Party and deputy head of the state-run National Council for Human Rights, told AA.

Shehab Wagih, spokesman for the liberal Free Egyptians Party, agreed.

"I expect over a 70 percent 'yes' vote and a higher turnout than the 2012 referendum," he told AA.

He added that he still had some security concerns amid rumors that Morsi supporters would attempt to deter people from voting.

The pro-Morsi National Alliance for the Defense of Legitimacy has called on supporters to boycott the poll for "political, legal, and procedural reasons," citing what it describes as the "illegitimacy" of Egypt's military-backed interim government.

"I don't expect voter turnout to exceed 13 percent," Ahmed Badie, spokesman for the Salafist Watan Party, a member of the pro-Morsi alliance, told AA.

Nevertheless, Badie predicted a "yes" vote of over 70 percent.

"Those who vote will vote 'yes' because they hate the Brotherhood," he said, "while all those who support [Morsi's constitutional] legitimacy will boycott the poll."

For his part, Hassan Shahin, co-founder of the Tamarod movement, which spearheaded the protests that led to Morsi's ouster last year, believes turnout will be high. He predicted a landslide win for the 'yes' vote.

"I expect people to participate en masse," he told AA. "Egyptians want to support the roadmap and get through the transitional phase smoothly."

"In any case," he added, "the 'yes' vote will not garner less than 80 percent."

Mokhtar Ghobashi, deputy head of the Arabic Center for Political and Strategic Studies, also predicted an approval rate of between 70 and 80 percent.

"Those who reject the draft will boycott the referendum," he said.

He added that the low turnout in expatriate voting, which took place from January 8 to 12, was not indicative of a poor turnout in Egypt.

"Internal voting considerations are different," Ghobashi said. "It's not only a vote on the draft constitution, but on the entire transitional phase."

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