OPINION - Will Biden, Kishida's farewell shape Quad's future path?

The author is a geostrategic analyst and freelance columnist on international affairs.

ISTANBUL

The Quad, a topflight summit of leaders involving the US, Japan, India, and Australia, is scheduled to be held in Delaware on Sept. 21 as a "farewell" for US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida before they step down from their respective offices. This meeting holds significant geopolitical weight, especially as China has been eyeing the Quad with suspicion as a possible containment front. However, Biden is stepping down soon, as is Kishida. It provides one last chance for both to shore up the alliance's strategic objectives.

What used to be a modest and loosely knit security dialogue until its revival in 2017, the Quad is now beginning to evolve as a strategic platform on potential economic trade issues beyond traditional defense coordination areas to cover technology cooperation. The summit is taking place at a time of widespread international instability, against a grim background of Russia's long-running war in Ukraine and continuing fighting in Gaza, through escalating tension both in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. In this context, Biden and Kishida would also want to leave a mark of their own

Can the Quad maintain the momentum?

Both Kishida and Biden have long sought to build the Quad as a central plank of their Indo-Pacific strategies. However, much of their tenures have been consumed by domestic and other international crises that may have tempered the group’s loftier ambitions. Looming elections in the US, coupled with Japan’s upcoming Liberal Democratic Party leadership contest, will certainly have an indirect impact on the future of this alliance. Juggling their geopolitical priorities with domestic political realities, the Quad will be tested by its intricate challenge of maintaining momentum in the face of changing leadership and a global atmosphere far from cooperation.

It makes sense for China to scrutinize every move the Quad makes. Perhaps the most interesting piece of this geopolitical puzzle is India. Long seen as the Quad’s relatively shaky member, India’s shifting allegiances and occasional disagreements with Washington bring an element of unpredictability. How India manages its role within this strategic group, particularly in the face of its sometimes tense rapport with Washington, could determine the future balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

At the heart of this uncertainty lies the Quad’s cohesion, or perhaps its lack of it. What role India plays in this strategic grouping and how it engages the occasional prickliness of Washington might therefore shape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific in the coming days. In this haze of confusion, indeed, it is the unity or disunity of the Quad that glistens at its core. India remains both a critical member and the one placed on the knife's edge as it tries to balance its national interests against its partnership with Washington. So while Washington always tries to get New Delhi on its side on global issues, the latter often weaves an independent line of action and even conflicts with it on critical matters, as in the case of the Russia-Ukraine war. India's foreign policy amid the Ukraine crisis has put the Biden administration in a challenging position, while its stance within the BRICS framework and reluctance to align with the US on climate change have become increasingly apparent. This divergence only highlights India's strategic desire to use its relationship with the US for its own interests, sometimes pitying in comparison.

Ever-changing balances and relations in the Indo-Pacific

At the end of the day, it is these relationships that will most shape the future of the Indo-Pacific. India's next moves in the Quad are expected to be closely monitored by not only its allies but also China, which keeps a watch on any signs of changing alignments that could work against its strategic interests. Similarly, Australia's changing relationship with Beijing throws another element into the mix. With Canberra and Beijing bonding, there may be resistance coming from within Australian corridors toward the US-led Indo-Pacific Strategy, principally targeting China. The dynamics changing within the Quad are reflective of larger adjustments in regional alignments. So some elements of unity exist in certain areas, but the very reason for the creation of the Quad to counter China is based on conjectural and inflated apprehensions. Originally put together as a Beijing-skeptics club, the essentials of the Quad’s formation look underwhelming, based more on fears than a joining fellow feeling. Looking ahead, India's hosting of the 2025 summit will be a key test for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It will provide him the opportunity to not just raise India's global profile but also shape the future of the Quad in a dramatically altering geopolitical environment where China views the strategic intent of the Quad with intense suspicion in the Indo-Pacific region.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.