OPINION - Türkiye and UK could shape Europe's new defense axis

The author is the director of Economyfirst Limited London.

ISTANBUL

“At the crossroads between the Black Sea, the Caucasus, the Middle East and Africa, Turkey (sic) is imperative to UK security interests across Europe and on NATO’s flanks …” – quoted from the British National Security Strategy 2025. Was this statement mere rhetoric aimed at the bilateral audience before Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s visit to Türkiye, or does it reflect a genuine basis for closer relations?

London’s 3C: Confrontation, competition, cooperation

The National Security Strategy 2025 as presented to Parliament by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in June lays out the UK’s strategic context as well as a strategic framework. In a nutshell: London argues it has to navigate an era of radical uncertainty. The prime minister would not mince his words either by declaring "Russian aggression menaces our continent" and refers to Moscow’s leader as "tyrants like Putin." Nevertheless, the policy paper sets out less confrontational goals in great detail and a fair number of those are a very good starting point to expand on existing – and normally rather positive – relations between London and Ankara. On the one hand London plans to increase its sovereign nation state strengths whilst on the other suggests that exactly those sovereign states are strongest when they are bound together by a shared vision and purpose. Contradictory? We shall return to that question below in this piece.

Typhoons on their way

Coming back to the introductory observation made in the beginning, that official British government paper states that "at the crossroads between the Black Sea, the Caucasus, the Middle East and Africa, Turkey (sic) is imperative to UK security interests across Europe and on NATO flanks and remains a key NATO and bilateral partner for the UK, with strong military integration and defense industrial collaboration." Now let’s add what Lammy said to the press in London on the eve of his departure for Ankara: "In an increasingly volatile world, the UK and Turkey (sic) remain the closest of friends and partners as we work together to find peaceful solutions to conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Ours is a relationship which delivers directly for Turkish and British citizens at home – trade between our nations is responsible for thousands of jobs, while our security and defense links help keep our people safe" [1].

For example, the agreed exports of Eurofighter Typhoons to Türkiye is a concrete result of these efforts, as the defense chiefs of both countries signed a new agreement in Istanbul just weeks after Lammy’s visit. According to the UK government, this agreement strengthens NATO's collective deterrence and builds on years of defense cooperation and growing industrial ties between the UK and Türkiye. The Typhoon program alone supports 20,000 jobs in the UK, with exports expected to secure thousands more, delivering on the government’s Plan for Change. UK Defense Secretary John Healey and Turkish National Defense Minister Yasar Güler signed the memorandum of understanding at this month’s International Defense Industry Fair (IDEF) in Istanbul.

Defense cooperation on the up, but so is bilateral trade

But limiting our reflections to defense only would not allow to see the wider picture: bilateral trade in all sectors amounted to a staggering £28 billion in 2024 ($37.57 billion) with Turkish exports to Britain reaching $15.29 in 2024 out of that overall figure. One might argue, an almost balanced export import volume between both nations. Thus said, Türkiye has since long and ever more so since early in the New Millennium shelved the unmerited image of being a manufacturer of "cheap parts" by turning itself into a globally recognized and admired top-class, highest quality producer of end products. The UK-Türkiye trade balance speaks positive volumes in this context.

Top-end products and services in almost all industry sectors, plus an ever-increasing domestic defense sector production capacity – it is not impossible to say that one day soon out of an expected $8 billion domestic defense and aerospace exports from Türkiye to many foreign countries (2024 figures: $7.154 billion which already represents an increase of 29% when compared with 2023), the UK could become a key buyer as well. We mentioned the Typhoon deal adding or safeguarding 20,000 much-needed jobs in Britain; Türkiye’s defense sector currently employs just about 100,000 staff, too, with 3,500 companies active in the sector [2].

How will this impact Europe’s principal security and defense policies, and perhaps even Türkiye's decades-overdue admission to the EU? Bilateral relations often pave the way for a broader continental policy making picture. Ankara and London are ready. Playing to the gallery as asked in our teaser? Far from it – Realpolitik 2.0 with two friendly nations embracing each other, their cultures, values, traditions and their unwavering commitment to peace and security far beyond their own borders.

And last but not least the contradictory remark from above: can sovereign states truly cooperate without compromising independence? Yes – if they engage as equals, grounded in mutual respect. A powerful UK outside the EU but with close ties, a powerful Türkiye one day within the EU, plus close ties with the UK – no better political and defense triangle possible one would suggest.

[1] Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, first published June 30, 2025

[2] https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/turkiye-compelled-to-bolster-defense-muscle-erdogan

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.