• If Trump's first term is any guide, it is probably safe to assume that Trump's second term foreign policy will be confusing and all over the map
• It is unclear if or how the deadly New Year's Day attack in New Orleans will impact the second Trump administration’s Middle East foreign policy. This could entail Trump ordering the US military to launch strikes against Daesh/ISIS in the region

The author is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics.

ISTANBUL 

On Jan. 20, US President-elect Donald Trump will begin his second term. It is extremely difficult to say how the incoming administration will approach the Middle East given Trump’s unpredictability and the countless unknown factors that will shape regional dynamics in these upcoming years. If Trump's first term is any guide, it is probably safe to assume that Trump's second term foreign policy will be confusing and all over the map.

Trump's inconsistencies

Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from Syria on three separate occasions but never followed through on these promises during his first term. Additionally, for all his talk about ending the “endless wars” that he blamed on former President George W. Bush, his 2016 opponent Hillary Clinton, and others, Trump never ended the US military presence in Afghanistan or Iraq during his first four years in the Oval Office. Since winning last year’s presidential election, he has selected neo-conservatives, hardline hawks, and pro-Israel advocates such as Marco Rubio, Elise Stefanik, and Pete Hegseth to serve his second administration. At the same time, Vice President-elect JD Vance has declared that “neo-conservative foreign policy is strategically and morally stupid.”

Trump, despite sabotaging the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, expressed openness last year to negotiating a new deal with Tehran. He also attributed de-dollarization to US sanctions, including those imposed on Iran, while delivering a speech at the New York Economic Club. On the other hand, he has selected several individuals for high-ranking roles in his second administration who advocate for a US policy of regime change in Iran. Even if Trump does not pursue a direct regime-change agenda toward Tehran, his second administration will likely impose "maximum pressure 2.0" on Iran, which means they will be doing the same maximum pressure method in their second term as well. This would likely involve imposing increasingly stringent sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China and seeking European support to intensify pressure on the Islamic Republic. Trump will possibly encourage messianic Israel to take even more aggressive action against Iran and Tehran-aligned non-state actors in the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen.

Middle East undergoing change

However, the Middle East has undergone significant changes since Trump left the White House in January 2021, which will complicate his second term’s foreign policy approach. Gulf Arab monarchies are now engaged in detente with Iran and are unlikely to support a renewed US-led "maximum pressure" campaign. It will also be extremely difficult for Trump to build on his Abraham Accords legacy by bringing more Arab states into the Israeli normalization fold, especially in the context of the region's post-Oct. 7, 2023 environment. It is important to observe how Trump's second term policies adjust to the past four years of these major shifts in the Middle East.

It is unclear if or how the deadly New Year's Day attack in New Orleans — in which a 42-year-old US citizen and Army veteran named Shamsud-Din Jabbar intentionally drove a pick-up truck into a crowd — will impact the second Trump administration’s Middle East foreign policy. Given that the attacker used the Daesh/ISIS emblem, the possibility of new power vacuums in Syria or other countries in the region opening the door to a possible revival of the so-called “Caliphate” could result in the incoming administration focusing heavily on extremism in the Arab-Islamic world. In practice, this could entail Trump ordering the US military to launch strikes against Daesh/ISIS and other groups in the region. Given Trump’s desire to avoid deploying US ground troops to conflict-ridden parts of the Middle East, remote drone strikes would probably be his preferred approach. Mindful of the fact that Trump waged drone attacks against such groups in a host of countries during his first term, imagining similar actions during his second term is somewhat easy.

Known for his unpredictability and tendency to appear "tough" on the international stage Trump’s Middle East foreign policy will likely be shaped by contradictions, tensions, and dysfunctionality. Conflicting motivations on the part of those serving his administration stand to further complicate matters with a divide between hardline neo-conservative hawks and “restrainers” wanting to avoid costly wars and quagmires. Time will tell who in the incoming administration makes the arguments that Trump finds most convincing. Nonetheless, there will likely be spirited internal debates that inform the president-elect’s foreign policy decision-making.

Regardless of how such debates play out, Trump will probably make his foreign policy decisions in a transactional manner. Lacking a vision for the Middle East while opting to implement policies that serve the highest bidder, there is no reason to expect Trump, in his new term, to approach international relations based on the concept of American exceptionalism. Instead of believing that the US has a special mission in the world and a responsibility to shape a “liberal” global order, the president-elect can be counted on to approach the Middle East based on his loosely defined “America First” strategy, considerations of his legacy, and drive to secure lucrative business deals for large US companies while advancing his own financial interests.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.