The author is the Director of Paris Advanced Research Center (PARC).

ISTANBUL

French President Emmanuel Macron embarked on a highly consequential visit to Beijing at a moment when Russia’s pressure on Europe was intensifying and the strategic rivalry between the US and China was reshaping global power dynamics. The trip carried exceptional weight, not only because it marked the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between France and China, but also because it came at a time when Macron was confronting significant political and economic troubles at home. The French economy has been struggling with prolonged low growth, rising public debt, and deepening budget deficits. Against this backdrop, Macron’s visit was not only an effort to secure economic relief for France but also a strategic attempt to recalibrate Europe’s geopolitical posture at a pivotal moment.

Negotiation backed by tariff threats

The main goal of Macron’s visit was to address the growing trade imbalance with China in a way that would benefit both France and the EU. For many years, Europe believed it could maintain its economic model by exporting high-tech goods to countries like China while importing cheap products in return. However, China has gone through a much faster technological transformation than expected. This shift has sharply weakened Europe’s competitiveness. The EU’s trade deficit with China has reached $357 billion. This has created serious political and economic concerns across Europe, especially in France. Nearly half of France’s own trade deficit comes from China, showing just how severe the imbalance has become.

Macron is now trying to correct this situation by pursuing a careful diplomatic balance. On one hand, he is asking for fairer trade conditions; on the other, he hints that if Beijing does not take steps to reduce its large trade surplus, Europe may introduce tariffs on Chinese goods. His goal is not only to boost France’s exports but also to prevent the collapse of Europe’s industrial model. As he stated in an interview with Les Echos on his way back from the trip, "China is hitting the heart of Europe’s industrial model." [1]

This situation has become a growing threat, especially for the European automotive sector. For years, car manufacturers moved their production lines to China to benefit from lower costs. But China’s rapid rise, with brands like BYD taking over large parts of the market, and the high US tariffs on cars made in China, have put Europe’s leading automakers under serious economic and strategic strain. This reality is pushing Macron toward a new strategy: if Europe can no longer compete with China, then Chinese companies should invest directly in Europe. In this way, Europe could take part in the technological shift while protecting its own industrial base.

The second major dimension of Macron’s visit was geopolitical. Russia’s continued advances in Ukraine and the growing risk of a wider conflict pose a direct threat to Europe’s security. As the situation grows increasingly volatile, Macron urged China to limit its support for Moscow and to take on a more active diplomatic role. He hopes that Beijing will use its influence over Russia to help move the conflict toward a ceasefire. Yet the strong ties between Beijing and Moscow make such an outcome unlikely.

China's strategic priorities

During the visit, Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed 12 agreements, including cooperation in nuclear energy, education, and a symbolic partnership on panda conservation. For China, however, the most critical issue was Taiwan. The Chinese leadership emphasized its sensitivity on the matter and called on France to align more closely with Beijing’s position. China also expressed its desire to strengthen economic ties with Europe and asked for EU support in its green and industrial transition efforts.

Yet Macron’s approach reflects this shifting landscape. Europe can no longer match China in price, production capacity, or technology. The trade deficit is at a historic high. Macron now sees Chinese investment in Europe as a possible way forward. His goal is to build an investment diplomacy that can turn these unfavorable conditions into an advantage. Once a major investor in China, Europe has increasingly become an actor seeking Chinese capital to flow in the opposite direction. A continent that once led in high-tech production is gradually becoming dependent on China, shifting from a technology exporter to a supplier of more traditional goods, such as wine. During that earlier period, Europe also had the ability to shape these countries’ political and economic orientations through human rights rhetoric and various geopolitical pressure tools, an influence it no longer fully holds.

Across Europe, concerns are rising. Russia has remained resilient despite heavy sanctions. Meanwhile, the US under the Trump administration is promoting its own peace plan while excluding Europe, creating deep unease within the EU. Germany and France are expanding their military forces, and the EU is preparing a $1 trillion defense budget. These developments show that the continent is entering a new period of geopolitical tension. Macron’s message to China is therefore clear: if you want to trade with Europe, you must help us stop Russia, yet this remains more fantasy than reality. In the final analysis, Macron’s visit to China is unlikely to yield anything more than new tariffs on Chinese goods in the near future.

[1] https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/la-chine-vient-percuter-le-coeur-du-modele-industriel-europeen-previent-emmanuel-macron-2203223

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.