- The author is the director of the European Center for Palestine Studies at the University of Exeter.

ISTANBUL

There is a misconception that dominates Western media and politics about the so-called war in the Gaza Strip being over. Consequently, the new narrative is that the fighting came to an end due to pressure from Western governments that heeded requests from their societies to bring an end to the violence in the Gaza Strip.

This is a misconception on several levels, and it needs to be confronted because it will continue to dominate the Western approach to the Palestine question in general and the future of the Gaza Strip in particular.

The ‘war is over’ myth

The last two years were not a war but a genocide and the main intention behind it, namely, to downsize the Gaza Strip both territorially and demographically, informs the present incremental and low-key military actions that have already led to the death of hundreds of Palestinians since the ceasefire was declared. Israel annexed part of the Strip, allegedly to give it back, should Hamas be disarmed, but at the same time, Defense Minister Israel Katz declared Israel’s intention to build Jewish settlements and military bases on the northern part of the Strip.

Also, the work of reconstruction and fundamental humanitarian aid is withheld, allegedly because there is still the body of an Israeli hostage that has not been returned, but it should be understood, as Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel’s National Security Council, stated, that allowing Gaza to be reconstructed is not in Israel's interest.

This is a transition from an all-out genocide into an incremental one, a method Israel already used in the years 2009 to 2023. There is a possibility that US President Donald Trump would demand a different Israeli policy, but his whimsical approach is difficult to build upon. The only positive aspect of his approach is his understanding that Turkish involvement in the reconstruction of the strip and as part of an international force is the only guarantee that, at least in the short term, not all the Israeli plans would be implemented. The role of Türkiye is the main bone of contention between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and it remains to be seen how it is going to be resolved.

Israel's long-term plans

But the Israeli plans for the long term should worry us. It goes beyond annexing part of the strip, probably building settlements and bases there and it extends into the West Bank and maybe beyond into some neighboring Arab states.

The Israeli political elite, and it does not matter if there will be a different government in 2026, wishes to annex Area C of the West Bank. As part of this vision, the army has already committed ethnic cleansing operations in several refugee camps, such as Jenin and Shams al-Din, actions that escaped the attention of international public opinion and exposed once more the Western governments’ indifference towards the fate of tens of thousands of Palestinians this winter. While at the same time, the other ethnic cleansing operation that had begun years ago continues in East Jerusalem, the Jordan Valley and the South Hebron Mountains. This is accompanied by the work of the hilltop youth, vigilantes in the service of the government who harass the Palestinians daily through pogroms. This is a long-term plan, not an accidental policy.

Similarly, a dubious twin approach has been adopted toward the more than a million Palestinians who are citizens of Israel. On the one hand, a heavy policy that delegitimizes their political activity in solidarity with the people of Gaza, and on the other, encouraging criminal gangs to terrorize life in their villages and towns, with the hope that this would cause emigration. Again, this is a strategy, not a one-off policy.

Finally, there is a wish to extend Israel into south Lebanon and south Syria as part of a messianic vision of reconstructing the biblical great Israel. This should be taken seriously, together with a wish to return to a confrontation with Iran. Part of these provocations are due to Netanyahu’s hope to have elections at the time of war (or even cancel them and his trial because of war) but for his ideological allies, these confrontations will establish Israel as a fearsome regional power.

Will all this succeed? Hard to tell. Not everyone in Israel is part of this ideological orientation, but it dominates Israeli society and politics. Much depends on the regional and international response to these developments. A firm response can avert this kind of aggression and provocation, of which the Palestinians will be the main victims.

Sanction and condemnation, and active diplomacy, have rarely been attempted against Israel. It is high time to attempt such an approach, not only for the sake of the Palestinians but also in order to save the Israelis from themselves.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.