GENEVA

The global population may be growing more slowly than before, but it’s still growing. In fact, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) estimates that by 2050, the world population will be 20%-30% larger than it was in 2020 -- nearing 10 billion people -- and will only begin to level off around 2100.

But beneath these numbers lies a more complex and urgent story.

"Population is impacted by three factors: fertility, mortality and migration," UNFPA representative Mariam Khan told Anadolu. "And these three are constantly in flux."

While people across the globe are living longer, fertility rates are falling. According to UNFPA, average global fertility has dropped from five children per woman in the 1950s to just 2.3 today. By 2050, it is projected to reach 2.1 -- the so-called “replacement level.”

"Two-thirds of the world now lives in low-fertility contexts," Khan said. "People are living longer, but many are choosing to have fewer children."

Declining fertility, rising concerns

Despite the slowdown, many governments remain locked in outdated frameworks focused solely on growth. Khan warned that this model is no longer sustainable or reflective of how people live and decide today.

"We're moving into a world where population is growing more slowly, is going to be older, and might need to, also for purposes of the environment, consume less," she said. "It’s not about whether the number is high or low. It's about adapting to these changes.”

In many countries, there is now a consistent gap between how many children people would like to have and how many they actually do.

"Almost in every country," the number of children that couples actually have is lower than they desire to have, Khan noted, explaining that such a gap is due to economic and social barriers.

From high housing and education costs to unequal care responsibilities and limited access to reproductive health services, many factors prevent people from reaching their desired family size. Unpaid care work, still largely done by women, further limits options.

"Care work consumes a lot of time, mental space, and actual time," said Khan. "Sharing in that frees up both the man and the woman to have opportunities...including the number of children they want to have."

Why short-term fixes don't work

Some governments have turned to cash bonuses and tax breaks to raise fertility rates. But according to UNFPA, these policies often fall short -- especially if they fail to address the deeper, structural issues.

"History tells us that attempts to reverse fertility decline through short-term incentives or coercive measures often fail and can even backfire," said Khan. "They narrowly focus on influencing women to have more children, without addressing deeper structural issues."

Instead, UNFPA advocates for long-term, women- and family-friendly policies that address economic insecurity, ensure reproductive rights and promote gender equality.

"The goal is to support individuals who wish to have children," Khan emphasized.

Countries that have made real progress, she said, have taken an inclusive approach. That includes workplace equality, accessible childcare, flexible work models and shared parental leave -- all of which make it easier for families to thrive.

"Policies that promote gender equality, protect reproductive rights and provide sustainable economic and social support are the keys to reaching desired fertility and building a resilient society," she said.

Adapting to an aging population

As fertility declines and populations age, many countries will soon face new social and economic challenges. Khan said this is not a reason for panic, but for preparation.

The working-age population will start to decrease while the share of elderly people in the population continues to increase, she explained, and said: "This leads to dependency ratios that place a bigger burden on those working."

In practical terms, that means reforming pension systems, strengthening health care infrastructure and reconsidering retirement policies.

“Aging populations don’t signal collapse," she said. "They require adjustment -- and vision."

Regarding what global cooperation can offer, she said the challenges are not unique to any one country -- and neither are the solutions. Khan emphasized the importance of international cooperation, knowledge sharing and evidence-based policy development.

"By learning from global examples—from Japan and South Korea to Sweden and France—all countries can shape their own path," she said. "The core question isn’t whether there are too many or too few people but whether everyone has the equal rights and opportunities to shape their own lives with dignity."