• As more countries prepare to recognize Palestine in September, pressure continues to mount for a renewed political process that would formalize statehood and possibly reshape the diplomatic balance at the UN
• ‘It’s part of a big final push to breathe life back into the two-state solution. It’s part of a big package to end the conflict in Gaza once and for all, to reconstruct, rehabilitate it, to push back Israel’s settlement policy, to stop any further annexations,’ says Victor Kattan of the University of Nottingham’s School of Law   

ISTANBUL 

A growing wave of diplomatic momentum is gathering around the recognition of Palestinian statehood, with France, Britain and Canada among nations announcing plans to extend recognition during the UN General Assembly in September, while others, including Australia, have signaled intentions to follow.

These announcements from key Western powers – most of them US allies – come amid mounting calls for efforts toward a two-state solution. In July, 15 countries issued a joint statement reaffirming support for Palestinian statehood and urging steps toward a peaceful resolution.

“We, Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Andorra, Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia, and Spain, reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-state solution,” read a joint statement.

The signatories underscored that two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, must coexist peacefully within secure and internationally recognized borders, in line with international law and relevant UN resolutions.

The renewed drive for recognition comes as Israel’s war on Gaza approaches its 22nd month, leaving more than 60,000 Palestinians dead, over 2 million facing starvation, and Gaza’s infrastructure in ruins.

In the past year alone, several countries – including long-time supporters of Israel – have recognized Palestine’s right to statehood.

Spain, Norway, Ireland, and Slovenia took formal steps in 2024, while this year, growing global outrage over Israel’s actions in Gaza has pushed more governments to break with Washington’s line.

In July, President Emmanuel Macron confirmed France would officially recognize Palestine at the UN General Assembly set for September.

Shortly after, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the UK would follow suit in September unless Israel takes “substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza.”

Canada, too, said it would formally recognize the Palestinian state in September due to the “intolerable” humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

“Canada intends to recognize the state of Palestine at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in September 2025,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said at a news conference in Ottawa after chairing a virtual Cabinet meeting.

Malta’s Prime Minister Robert Abela also confirmed his country would join the move in September, while Portugal’s Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said his government will hold discussions with main political parties and other stakeholders about a potential recognition decision.

To date, 149 of the UN’s 193 member states have recognized Palestine, a number that has steadily increased since Israel launched its war on Gaza in October 2023.

Palestine’s claim to statehood dates back to Nov. 15, 1988, when Palestine Liberation Organization head Yasser Arafat proclaimed an independent state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Algeria became the first country to recognize the declaration, prompting a wave of recognition from more than 80 nations across Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Arab world.  

A shift in global recognition

France’s forthcoming recognition marks a major geopolitical moment, as it would be the first G7 country and the first permanent member of the UN Security Council to take the step.

While several EU countries have already recognized Palestine, the political geography of recognition is clearly shifting. Currently, 11 of the EU’s 27 member states recognize Palestine, and France’s decision will bring the number to 12.

In less than a year, four European nations – Norway, Ireland, Spain, and Slovenia – have extended formal recognition.

“The significance this time is that states in Western Europe, and in other parts of the Global North, have indicated that they are prepared, subject to a number of conditions, to recognize Palestine,” said Victor Kattan, assistant professor at the University of Nottingham’s School of Law. 

Final push for a two-state solution

Countries moving toward recognition are doing so with the aim of reviving a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders, with both Israel and Palestine coexisting in peace and security.

“It’s part of a big final push to breathe life back into the two-state solution,” said Kattan. “It’s part of a big package to end the conflict in Gaza once and for all, to reconstruct, rehabilitate it, to push back Israel’s settlement policy, to stop any further annexations.”

He added that the recognition move is also aimed at coordinating further measures against both Israel and Hamas.

“The idea is to push Hamas out of governance of the Gaza Strip and have them replaced with Palestinian Authority security forces who will be running the state of Palestine,” Kattan said. “Then in exchange, the Palestinian Authority is going to agree to hold elections in 2026.”

Under the proposed framework, the Palestinian Authority would undergo reform, Israel would be expected to halt annexations, allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, and engage in a credible peace process, he said.

“But the Israeli government will not be able to meet those commitments,” Kattan warned. 

UN membership and US veto

Despite overwhelming international support, Palestine remains a non-member observer state at the UN since 2012.

“Palestine has the numbers in the UN General Assembly, but they have a problem with the Security Council because the US has a veto power there, and they used it last April when Palestine applied for membership,” Kattan said.

If France and the UK proceed with recognition, four out of five permanent Security Council members would support Palestinian statehood. “Maybe it will lead to some pressure on the US,” he said.

Still, Kattan does not see the Trump administration modifying its stance: “If anything, it’s becoming even more extreme.”

Yet, he said, global recognition could make US opposition less relevant. “The question mark over the statehood of Palestine won’t be there anymore, even if the US doesn’t recognize it,” he said. “Everybody else in the world would have.”

Formal recognition will also bring diplomatic changes. “The immediate implications of a formal act of recognition is that the relationship between, for example, the UK and France (and Palestine) would no longer be a relationship between a state and a non-state actor,” said Kattan.

“It would be between two sovereign states … It would mean that when the UK or France signs an agreement, it will no longer be with the Palestinian National Authority, but rather with the State of Palestine."

That would entail embassies instead of general missions and confer full diplomatic immunity to Palestinian ambassadors.

“It will also mean that the state itself is immune from legal proceedings in domestic courts of states,” Kattan said.