• Israel’s strategy in attacking regional countries is ‘about demonstrating impunity,’ says geopolitical risk analyst Andreas Krieg
• Analysts say Israel is also trying to push Palestinians out of Gaza into the Sinai, which would be crossing a red line for Egypt

ISTANBUL

The Israeli airstrike that killed relatives and aides of Hamas leaders in Doha this week is being described by analysts as a deliberate move to derail peace efforts and extend the war in Gaza.

“The attempt on the life of the Hamas leaders in Qatar, which was pushed forward by (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu – even though his advisers, including the military, opposed it – was meant to achieve one thing: to make sure that the war continues and attempts at a ceasefire collapse,” political scientist Ahron Bregman of King’s College London told Anadolu.

He stressed that Netanyahu is determined to prolong the conflict at any cost. “To achieve this aim, Netanyahu is even willing to sacrifice the hostages. After all, if you kill those you negotiate with, the hostages cannot be released,” Bregman added.

On Tuesday, Israeli warplanes struck a residential building in Doha housing members of Hamas’ negotiating delegation. While senior officials survived, the attack killed the son of Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya, his office director, three bodyguards, and a Qatari security officer.

Qatar has been central to efforts to broker a truce in Gaza, where Israel has now killed nearly 65,000 Palestinians since October 2023, wounded over 162,000 more, and created a famine that has claimed hundreds more lives, including children.

Hamas denounced the strike as not just an assassination attempt but “an attack on the entire negotiation process.”

Andreas Krieg, a geopolitical risk analyst, said the door to talks is not yet fully closed but has been nearly slammed shut.

“Hitting Doha undermines the Qatar-Egypt-US channel. Hamas will dig in, Qatar will tread more carefully, and Israel has made clear it currently favors coercion over dialogue,” he said.

Wars eventually end at the negotiating table, Krieg noted, but added that conditions must shift before discussions can resume. “If battlefield dynamics, hostage leverage, or US pressure change, talks could restart, though probably after a pause and on tougher terms.”

Ryan Bohl, another analyst, argued that the Netanyahu government is “not interested in a ceasefire that is anything but the surrender of Hamas.”

“The Israelis will only engage with a diplomatic process where Hamas essentially surrenders or goes into exile,” he said, adding that for now, negotiations are in their weakest state since collapsing in March.

Genocidal war, reoccupation and Greater Israel ambitions

Experts see the Doha strike as further proof that Israel intends to keep the war alive.

“Netanyahu’s number one aim is to survive politically, and for that, he believes the war should continue,” Bregman said.

Krieg described what lies ahead as “a steadier, lower tempo: raids, targeted strikes, arrests, and control over crossings and Gaza’s air and sea space.” He noted that while Israel avoids calling it reoccupation, the reality amounts to indefinite dominance – security buffers, free movement for Israeli military, and deliberately weak or outsourced local governance.

“Politically, it looks like indefinite dominance without a credible political horizon,” he said.

Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, also sees Israel’s growing pattern of strikes outside Gaza as part of a strategy of “deterrence through reach.”

“Israel has already struck targets in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran – and now Qatar – signaling that it will impose costs wherever it sees threats,” Krieg explained. “The strategy is about demonstrating impunity, not redrawing maps.”

“Expansion in the ideological ‘Greater Israel’ sense is unlikely; expansion of cross-border strikes to shape the regional battlespace is already a fact.”

Annexation of the West Bank

Even as global attention remains fixed on Gaza, experts warn that Israel is quietly advancing de facto annexation in the occupied West Bank.

“Under the radar, the IDF, working with settlers, is tightening its grip on the West Bank with the openly declared aim of preventing any possibility of a Palestinian state being built there,” Bregman said.

He noted that settlement expansion is fragmenting the territory into enclaves resembling the South African Bantustans.

“Israel … will control 82% of the West Bank, where the 650,000 settlers will live, while in the remaining 18% of the land Israel will concentrate the close to 3 million West Bankers,” he explained.

Bohl said annexation could soon take center stage, especially after the upcoming UN General Assembly debates recognition of Palestine.

“That’s where it could go next … annexation in the West Bank has a pretty high risk of causing the Palestinian Authority to collapse and for there to be an intifada uprising there,” he warned.

Displacing Palestinians and Egypt’s red line

Analysts also say that Israel is attempting to push Palestinians out of Gaza, though mass expulsion into Egypt remains Cairo’s firm red line.

Bregman suggested Netanyahu’s strategy is to render Gaza uninhabitable, hoping Palestinians will leave. “If they break into the Sinai, so be it. It would be reckless of Netanyahu to encourage the Palestinians to move into the Sinai, as it would have a most negative impact on the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty.”

Krieg also emphasized that mass expulsion of Palestinians into the Sinai remains a red line for Egypt.

“Cairo has built both its military posture and diplomacy around blocking it,” he said. “Israel knows forcing the issue would rupture security ties, jeopardize the peace treaty, and invite huge international blowback.”

Instead, he said, Israel will likely continue displacements within Gaza, apply pressure at Rafah, and risk periodic flare-ups with Egypt.

“Cairo will respond with stronger border security, diplomatic moves at the UN and Arab League, and pressure on Washington and Gulf capitals,” said Krieg.

“A direct Egypt-Israel shooting war isn’t the baseline, but a major border incident or a move seen as threatening Egyptian sovereignty could spark a crisis – followed quickly by US-Gulf mediation to contain it.”