BEIRUT/ISTANBUL

Lebanon’s latest government decision to disarm all non-state actors, including Hezbollah, by the end of 2025 has thrown the country into a political storm, with analysts split between calling it a historic breakthrough and warning of a looming constitutional crisis.

In a move seen as directly targeting Hezbollah for the first time in years, the Lebanese Cabinet this week tasked the army with drafting a full disarmament plan and endorsed the objectives of a US-backed proposal calling for the state’s exclusive control over all weapons across the country.

The controversial step was met with fierce opposition from Hezbollah, which condemned the plan as a “grave mistake” and made clear it would not comply.

The decision, announced on Tuesday, gives the military until the end of August to present its plan. Two days later, the Cabinet approved the main goals of the US proposal, submitted by special envoy Tom Barrack, which calls for fully implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, reasserting state sovereignty, and ending all armed non-state presence, particularly Hezbollah, across Lebanese territory.

The 11-point plan also references the Taif Agreement, which laid the foundation for post-civil war Lebanon, and calls for strengthening the army and internal security forces as part of the transition.  

Unprecedented shift or improvised coup?

For political analyst Tony Boulos, the move marks a turning point in the state’s approach to Hezbollah’s arsenal.

“It’s not the first time disarmament is discussed, but this time there’s a concrete timeline; that’s a first,” Boulos told Anadolu. “It signals seriousness and a shift in how the Lebanese state defines its sovereignty.”

He said the American proposal introduces a reciprocal framework, a “step for a step” approach, which could pave the way for an Israeli pullout from remaining occupied areas in southern Lebanon.

But not everyone sees it as a breakthrough.

Analyst Ghassan Rifi warned that the plan risks undermining Lebanon’s constitutional foundations and the legitimacy granted to the resistance under the 1989 Taif Accord.

“This is not just a policy decision; it’s a pivot in the country’s political doctrine,” Rifi said. “And it’s happening under growing American and Israeli pressure.”

He criticized what he called a unilateral move by the Cabinet, saying there was no prior consultation with the army’s leadership, including Commander Rodolphe Haikal.

“How can the military be expected to disarm Hezbollah, a group entrenched for 43 years, in just four months?” Rifi asked. “And if it comes to enforcement, will the army confront the resistance directly? The implications are enormous.”  

Military tightrope 

Retired army general Naji Malaeb offered a different view, arguing that the Lebanese Armed Forces are capable of executing the plan if political consensus and security conditions are in place.

He pointed to the model in southern Lebanon, where the army operates in coordination with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) under a five-party mechanism involving Israel, the US, France, and the UN.

“That mechanism works, and even Hezbollah doesn’t reject it,” Malaeb said, noting that the group has publicly affirmed its commitment to Resolution 1701.

Malaeb added that Israeli intelligence often provides precise information about weapons caches, including those outside southern Lebanon, as evidenced by past airstrikes.

Still, he noted, the real challenge lies in long-range missile systems, which the US strongly opposes integrating into Lebanon’s official arsenal due to their complexity and strategic implications.

For Malaeb, two scenarios are likely: either Hezbollah agrees to inspections of its heavy weapon stockpiles in coordination with the army, or the military collects intelligence via international partners and submits it to the government for action.

“The army doesn’t act on its own,” he emphasized. “It follows the decisions of the political leadership. Without full political backing, any forced implementation would be both risky and potentially explosive.”

Cross-border warfare between Israel and Hezbollah began in October 2023 and escalated into a full-scale war in September 2024. As many as 4,000 people, including Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah, were killed, and around 17,000 others were injured.

A ceasefire was reached in November, but Israeli forces have conducted near-daily attacks in southern Lebanon, claiming to target Hezbollah activity.

Under the truce, Israel was supposed to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon by Jan. 26, but the deadline was extended to Feb. 18 after Tel Aviv refused to comply. Israel still maintains a military presence at five border outposts.