• Palestinian and Israeli analysts warn that Israel’s expansion of the illegal E1 settlement will effectively end any chances of a contiguous Palestinian state
• ‘The reason that Israel is advancing E1 now is because the Americans have no pressure on Israel, not like before,’ says Yonatan Mizrachi of Israeli advocacy group Peace Now
• Controlling this area allows Israel ‘to bury once and for all the possibility of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital,’ says Fakhri Abu Diab, a researcher on Jerusalem affairs

ISTANBUL

Israel’s approval of a controversial and long-delayed illegal settlement plan has triggered alarm among Palestinians and international observers, who are warning that it could effectively spell the end of any chance of a contiguous Palestinian state.

Conceived more than two decades ago, the plan – known as East1 or E1 – envisions construction across roughly 12 square kilometers (4.6 square miles) east of Jerusalem, linking the city to the illegal settlement bloc of Ma’ale Adumim.

While Israeli leaders describe it as part of a “Greater Jerusalem,” critics warn that the project would carve the occupied West Bank in two, isolate East Jerusalem, and forcibly displace thousands of Palestinians.

The Palestinian Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission (CWRC) sees the plan approved by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government as a tipping point that could extinguish any viable two-state solution.

According to CWRC, the E1 project was first approved in 1999 under plan number 4/420, covering vast tracts of land that Israel later annexed to Ma’ale Adumim.

In 2012, Israel ratified detailed subdivisions that went far beyond housing: industrial zones, a police headquarters, tourist parks, and waste sites repurposed as recreational areas. The project would sever the eastern flank of Jerusalem from neighboring towns such as Abu Dis, al-Eizariya and Anata, while physically bisecting the occupied West Bank into north and south.

The commission says the plan is part of a larger strategy to expand Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries from 126 square kilometers (nearly 49 square miles) to more than 600 square kilometers (over 231 square miles) – swallowing Ma’ale Adumim, Givat Ze’ev and Gush Etzion into what Israeli officials call “Greater Jerusalem.”

CWRC warns that this would turn Jerusalem alone into nearly 12% of the West Bank and erase its Palestinian urban fabric. One of the gravest consequences, it stresses, would be the forced displacement of 46 Bedouin communities in the Jordan Valley and eastern slopes, including Khan al-Ahmar and Jabal al-Baba.

Some families have already been uprooted since October 2023, with authorities offering “alternatives” in al-Eizariya and Jericho – options locals have so far resisted.  

Israel will ‘bury possibility of a Palestinian state’

For Palestinians, E1 is not body_abstract policy but an existential threat.

“This is the Eastern gateway to Jerusalem,” Fakhri Abu Diab, a researcher on Jerusalem affairs, told Anadolu, adding that controlling this area allows Israel “to bury once and for all the possibility of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

He noted that the plan would expand Jerusalem’s borders fivefold, absorbing Ma’ale Adumim and surrounding blocs into an area that alone would equal 12% of the West Bank. The project will displace around 7,000 Bedouins and hundreds of families in Jabal al-Baba, he said: “We are talking about 73,000 dunums (over 28 square miles) confiscated.

“Beyond the numbers, it is about destroying livelihoods. This land contains an aquifer vital for Palestinian agriculture, and the Bedouin communities here provide some of the highest levels of livestock production in the West Bank. By taking this land, Israel is stripping people of water, grazing land, food, and ultimately of life itself.”

Abu Diab argued that E1 is also a demographic weapon: “Israel has long tried to reduce the Palestinian share of Jerusalem’s population. If it cannot push us out by house demolitions and identity revocations, it inflates the settler numbers by annexing Ma’ale Adumim and the surrounding blocs. This way Palestinians become a minority in their own city.”  

Blocking the map of Palestine

Yonatan Mizrachi, who heads Settlement Watch at Israeli advocacy group Peace Now, echoed those fears.

“The center of Palestine is between Bethlehem and Ramallah … with important villages like Azaria and Hizme,” he said.

He warned that the land Israel seeks to build on is essential for Palestinian urban growth. “In any future political solution, when there will be a Palestinian state, the reserve land the Palestinians have to build on is actually in the area where E1 is located. This is the reserve land for the Palestinians,” he said.

“If Israel is building in this area, in many ways it’s blocking any potential expansion … It’s also creating a problem to have a Palestinian state with continuity … It’s a very dangerous step to prevent a Palestinian state and, maybe more importantly, to prevent peace.”

Mizrachi warned that Bedouin families east of Jerusalem would face immediate consequences. “They will be … cut off from the rest of the West Bank,” he said. “Unfortunately, they will find it very difficult to keep living where they are. The Bedouin community is under direct threat of being expelled or being forced to move.”  

International red lines eroding

On why the Israeli government is reviving E1 now, Mizrachi pointed to Washington’s silence and global distraction.

For decades, E1 has been considered a diplomatic red line. US presidents from George W. Bush to Barack Obama warned that it would kill peace talks. In 2012, after the UN General Assembly voted to grant Palestine non-member observer status, Israel briefly attempted to move forward with E1, only to be stopped by American intervention.

The Israeli right-wing has pushed for this for years, and now, with no US pressure and so many other crises, the government feels it can advance more easily, said the Peace Now official.

“The reason that Israel is advancing E1 now is because the Americans have no pressure on Israel, not like before,” he explained. “We’re talking about a very right-wing government, and this is their policy and they will do everything they can to advance this policy.”

Still, Mizrachi asserted, the final word lies with the US. “If the Americans will pressure, the project can be postponed. If the Americans will not pressure, the project will possibly move on.”

Abu Diab also warned that the international community’s silence has emboldened Israel. “Israel believes in the law of force, not the force of law,” he said. “They know that international reactions will not go beyond statements, and this emboldens them to act now.”