JERUSALEM / ISTANBUL

Israeli military analysts expect the failure of the upcoming US-Iran talks scheduled to begin Friday in Istanbul, warning that the negotiations are unlikely to address Iran’s ballistic missile program, which Tel Aviv views as a major threat.

Israeli officials are expected to discuss the planned talks between Washington and Tehran with US envoy Steve Witkoff, who is due to arrive in Israel later Tuesday.

Witkoff is expected to lead the US delegation in the Istanbul talks, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will head the Iranian side.

The United States and Israel consider Iran their chief regional adversary and accuse it of seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, including electricity generation.

Israel, widely believed to be the only country in the region with a nuclear arsenal, also claims that Iran’s efforts to rebuild its long-range ballistic missile program, damaged during the most recent war, pose a direct threat to Israeli security.

In June 2025, Israel, with US backing, launched a 12-day military campaign against Iran. Tehran responded by targeting large areas inside Israel before the United States announced a ceasefire.

Avi Ashkenazi, a military analyst for the Israeli newspaper Maariv, said Iranian participation in the talks raises doubts about their outcome.

“The big question is whether the Iranians are willing to show full surrender by handing over enriched uranium, dismantling the nuclear project, canceling the ballistic missile program, and halting support for armed groups in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza,” Ashkenazi wrote Tuesday.

Israeli preparedness

Ashkenazi said Israel believes the US may ultimately launch a military strike against Iran and would allow Israel to operate over Iranian territory if attacked.

“Israel has recently shared extensive intelligence with Washington, particularly on Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities,” he said.

The Israeli analyst noted that while Iran’s air defense systems sustained heavy damage during the Israeli attack last June, Tehran retains advanced industrial capacity and is working to rebuild.

“Israel believes Iran may have drawn lessons from the conflict, requiring Israel to improve its own preparedness for a future confrontation,” Ashkenazi added.

“The Israeli military has said the talks in Turkiye do not reduce its level of alert or readiness for both defense and offense,” he said.

Separately, Amos Harel, a military analyst for the newspaper Haaretz, said the talks represent Iran’s last chance to avoid a confrontation with US President Donald Trump, but warned that significant gaps remain.

Harel recalled events in June 2025, when a planned US-Iran meeting collapsed “after Trump misled Iranian officials and gave Israel the green light to target Iranian nuclear sites.”

“The circumstances today are somewhat different,” Harel wrote, noting Trump’s public support for Iranian protesters and the near-complete deployment of US forces near the Gulf, including naval assets and fighter jets, though additional missile defense systems are still expected.

*Writing by Lina Altawell