- Experts say there is a ‘risk of radiological contamination and mass civilian harm,’ warning ‘strikes on operating reactors or enriched fuel stores could trigger a regional nuclear emergency’

ISTANBUL 

Fears and tensions are rising in the Middle East and beyond as Israel continues its airstrikes targeting multiple nuclear facilities in Iran.

The Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure began last Friday, a day after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) censured Iran for a lack of transparency over its nuclear program.

The attacks, which Israel says aim to stop Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb, skittled the next scheduled round of US-Iran nuclear talks, and have triggered a daily exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran.

The death toll from Israeli attacks on Tehran and other areas of Iran has risen to 585, including dozens of women and children, with more than 1,300 people injured, according to media reports.

On the Israeli side, at least 24 people have been killed and over 500 wounded, according to latest reports.

Iran denies pursuing nuclear weapons and emphasizes its right to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, including enrichment, under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons, though it has never officially acknowledged their existence and remains one of the few nations that never joined the NPT.

Following Israel’s escalation, Tehran has indicated it could pull out of the NPT, which advocates the peaceful use of nuclear energy and aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

Iran’s nuclear infrastructure reportedly spans over 30 facilities spread across the country, with some built deep underground.

Natanz enrichment facility

Among the sites Israel has struck so far is the nuclear facility at Natanz, located some 220 kilometers (135 miles) southeast of Tehran.

Natanz is considered to be Iran’s main site for uranium enrichment site, partially built underground and hosting sophisticated centrifuges.

According to estimates by the IAEA and other sources, there are somewhere between 14,000 to 19,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

On Tuesday, the UN nuclear watchdog said its analysis revealed extensive impacts at Natanz, including “additional elements indicating direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls.”

This marked the first time the IAEA confirmed damage to the underground portion of Natanz, which has previously faced virus and other sabotage attacks that Iran has blamed on Israel and the US.

Fordo enrichment facility

Six days into the alarming escalation, Iran’s underground nuclear facility at Fordo has become a key focus of Israeli and US attention.

Several Israeli strikes have targeted the facility, which is located some 100 kilometers (60 miles) southwest of Tehran and also has centrifuge cascades.

Built under a mountain, Fordo is Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear installation, with a network of underground tunnels estimated to be between 80 to 90 meters deep, designed to withstand conventional airstrikes.

While the IAEA has so far not reported any destruction at the site, top Israeli officials have said they will “will not end” their attacks without damaging Fordo.

Multiple reports suggest Fordo is one of the main reasons Israel is pushing to get the US involved in its attacks on Iran, as only Washington has the powerful “bunker buster” bombs needed to damage such an underground facility.

Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center

Israeli strikes since last Friday have also targeted the nuclear complex at Isfahan, some 350 kilometers (215 miles) southeast of Tehran.

The Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center has three Chinese research reactors and various other facilities and laboratories, employing thousands of scientists.

According to the IAEA, four “critical buildings at Esfahan nuclear site were damaged … including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant.”

“Iran’s Nuclear Regulatory Authority has informed the IAEA that off-site radiation levels remain unchanged in Esfahan,” the UN watchdog said.

Other sites damaged

In an update on Wednesday, the IAEA said two Iranian centrifuge production facilities have suffered major damage in recent Israeli strikes.

“The TESA Karaj workshop and the Tehran Research Centre, were hit,” the agency said.

“At the Tehran site, one building was hit where advanced centrifuge rotors were manufactured and tested. At Karaj, two buildings were destroyed where different centrifuge components were manufactured.”

According to the UN agency, Iran confirmed that the Bushehr nuclear plant – the country’s only commercial nuclear power plant – has not been targeted.

Risks of contamination

Experts and watchdogs have repeatedly called for restraint and warned of the dangers of a nuclear disaster.

“Nuclear facilities must never be attacked,” IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said in one of his earliest statements following the initial Israeli strikes.

“Such attacks have serious implications for nuclear safety, security and safeguards, as well as regional and international peace and security.”

Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Anadolu that the fallout from Israeli strikes appears to be contained, but could worsen.

“At Natanz, the destruction of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant caused a radiological release of alpha particles and chemical toxicity from uranium hexafluoride gas,” he said.

“These effects appear to have been contained within the facility, but the implications are serious. In a follow-up assessment, the IAEA reported that the underground Fuel Enrichment Plant may have been penetrated, and that centrifuges could have been damaged due to power loss.”

He further highlighted the situation at Isfahan, where Israeli strikes damaged key uranium conversion and fabrication facilities, saying that though radiation leakage beyond these facilities was not reported, the risks persist.

“The potential for chemical or radiological contamination exists if strikes continue, particularly if facilities storing uranium hexafluoride gas or enriched uranium are compromised further,” said Toossi.

If the attacks spread to other targets, “the risk of radiological contamination and mass civilian harm becomes far greater, especially at Bushehr,” he said.

“The worst-case scenario – strikes on operating reactors or enriched fuel stores – could trigger a regional nuclear emergency. Beyond the immediate human and environmental danger, such an escalation would undermine the global non-proliferation regime and possibly push Iran to rethink its nuclear doctrine altogether,” he added.

Spencer Faragasso, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Science and International Security, pointed out that the damage at Natanz “is significant and has likely rendered both the above-ground and underground enrichment facilities inoperative.”

“The electrical infrastructure that powers Natanz has been destroyed, which has likely caused substantial damage to the centrifuges underground by crashing them,” he said.

Regarding Fordo, he said Israel could be expected to “at least strike the utility and support building positioned just outside the tunnel entrances.”