Mucahithan Avcioglu
05 March 2026•Update: 05 March 2026
ISTANBUL
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings said Thursday the economic effect of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would differ across Middle Eastern countries.
Most would likely, however, be able to absorb the shock within their current credit rating levels.
The agency based its projections on the assumption that the waterway would remain effectively closed for less than one month and no significant damage would occur to energy production or transport infrastructure.
Under that scenario, Fitch said the closure would affect countries in the region to varying degrees, but existing fiscal buffers and economic structures suggest the effect would remain manageable within current sovereign rating frameworks.
With the exception of Oman, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Iraq, export the majority of their hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz.
The report said Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar ship between 87% and 95% of their exports through the strategic passage. Iraq and Qatar have already halted a significant portion of their production.
Based on 2025 shipment data through the strait and assuming an oil price of $85 per barrel during the disruption, Fitch estimated that each week of a closure could reduce hydrocarbon export revenues for the four countries by 0.4% of GDP.
The agency added that part of the loss could be mitigated through the sale of stored hydrocarbons, although fully offsetting the revenue shortfall would be difficult.
