• ‘Chaos is Israel’s ‘day after’ plan because Israel’s leaders want to make Gaza ungovernable and unlivable … It is also a strategy to practice ethnic cleansing by stealth in Gaza,’ says Rob Geist Pinfold of King’s College London

• Israel aims to ‘impose a new geographic and demographic reality through a de facto reoccupation marked by direct military control and the establishment of buffer zones that confine Palestinians in ghettos,’ says analyst Ihab Maharmeh

ISTANBUL 

Nearly 22 months into its devastating war on Gaza, Israel is pressing forward with policies that experts say are drastically reshaping the enclave’s geography, demographics, and political landscape.

Analysts argue that Israel’s actions reflect a broader strategy to enforce a new order in Gaza, characterized by permanent displacement, depopulation of the north, a severe humanitarian crisis, and indefinite military control over strategic areas.

Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at the Defense Studies Department of King’s College London, believes Israel envisions two potential outcomes for Gaza, both as sinister as the other.

“Either the humanitarian situation becomes so dire that other regional powers take over governance in Gaza on Israel’s terms (i.e., without getting it to agree to Palestinian statehood),” he told Anadolu.

“Or by concentrating the territory’s population along Gaza’s southern border, they will inevitably spill over into the Sinai Peninsula and therefore depopulate Gaza.”

In either scenario, Gaza would become so dire that Israel anticipates many Palestinians leaving “voluntarily,” Pinfold warned.

Since October 2023, Israel has killed more than 59,000 Palestinians in Gaza – most of them women and children – destroying essential infrastructure, collapsing healthcare systems, and leaving the enclave facing starvation and famine.

‘De facto reoccupation’

The latest Israeli evacuation orders target parts of Deir al-Balah, home to tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has expressed deep concern, warning that this move pushes civilians into increasingly desperate conditions and further displacement.

“With this latest order, the area of Gaza under displacement orders or within Israeli-militarized zones has risen to 87.8%, leaving 2.1 million civilians squeezed into a fragmented 12% of the Strip, where essential services have collapsed,” OCHA said in a recent statement.

Ihab Maharmeh, a policy analyst at Al-Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network, argues that Israel’s ultimate objective is the reoccupation of Gaza, resulting in mass Palestinian expulsions.

“Israel’s policy in the Gaza Strip is clear: to impose a new geographic and demographic reality through a de facto reoccupation marked by direct military control and the establishment of buffer zones that confine Palestinians in ghettos,” he explained.

According to Maharmeh, who is also a researcher at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, this strategy lays the groundwork for the forced displacement of Palestinians further southward, specifically beyond the Morag Corridor and potentially beyond Gaza’s borders altogether.

‘Humanitarian city’ a guise for displacement

Analysts say the Israeli government’s plan to relocate Gaza’s entire population to a new zone on the ruins of Rafah city serves as a cover for forced displacement of Palestinians.

“Israel is promoting its plan to transfer Palestinians to a so-called ‘humanitarian city’ for housing 600,000 Palestinians in the southern Gaza Strip as part of a broader strategy to confine them to ghettos in preparation for large-scale forced displacement,”​​​​​​​ Maharmeh told Anadolu.

Pinfold offered similar insight, pointing out that many Israeli commentators, including former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, have labeled these efforts a concentration camp policy.

However, Pinfold suggested Palestinians should fear less the policy itself and more the implementation, which is likely to be deliberately chaotic and mismanaged, just like the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

“This and the humanitarian city are Israel’s attempt to claim it’s helping feed and provide for Gazans’ needs, when actually these serve a more sinister end: making Gaza unlivable, so many of its residents will leave,” he warned.

Starvation and chaos as weapons of war

As the food crisis deepens under Israel’s blockade, the World Food Program (WFP) warned on Monday that Gaza faces an “astonishing” hunger crisis. A quarter of the population endures famine-like conditions, and nearly 100,000 women and children suffer from severe acute malnutrition.

According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, at least 86 people, including 76 children, have died from hunger and dehydration since October 2023.

With Israel imposing a complete blockade on any aid supplies since late March, the ministry warned that Gaza now stands “on the brink of mass death.”

Moreover, the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) stated that around 1,000 starving civilians have been killed by Israeli forces since late May while attempting to access food supplies.

Maharmeh emphasized that Israel deliberately uses starvation as a method in its genocidal strategy to forcibly displace Palestinians.

“This began with the denial of adequate humanitarian aid, escalated with the targeting and banning of international relief agencies – such as UNRWA and the World Central Kitchen – and evolved into the creation of a deadly aid distribution system through the GHF, and is now culminating in a full-scale starvation campaign that serves Israel’s plan for the forced transfer of Palestinians,” he explained.

Experts further suggest that chaos itself forms a core component of Israel’s long-term strategy in Gaza.

“It seems increasingly clear that chaos is Israel’s ‘day after’ plan. This is because Israel’s leaders want to make Gaza ungovernable and unlivable – they see this as a way to pressure Hamas to end the war and/or relinquish its rule over Gaza,” said Pinfold.

“But more ominously, it is also a strategy to practice ethnic cleansing by stealth in Gaza.”