• Trump’s summit with Zelenskyy and European leaders projected unity in more than one way, but analysts say it also exposed deep rifts over the future of the Russia-Ukraine peace push
• Divide with Washington on ceasefire conditions, security guarantees, and territorial claims leaves the transatlantic alliance facing one of its most serious tests yet, warn experts

ISTANBUL

As European leaders joined Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his return to the White House this week, the unprecedented gathering underscored just how high the stakes in the Russia-Ukraine war have become for the continent’s security.

The gathering projected unity in more than one way: Zelenskyy had European heavyweights in his corner after February’s infamous Oval Office dressing down, and the European leaders presented a unified stance on what they expect from any eventual agreement with Russia.

Then there was the unique spectacle for the cameras, where President Donald Trump gave brief opening remarks and had all the others do the same – Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO chief Mark Rutte, and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb.

Both sides were full of praise for each other, a marked shift from the months of tense exchanges since Trump took office back in January.

However, analysts say the positive atmosphere was just part of the show, as the meeting also exposed deep rifts over ceasefire conditions, security guarantees, and the risk of Ukraine being pressured into territorial concessions.

“The summit was unprecedented, with so many leaders showing up on short notice for a meeting with Trump,” Shelby Magid, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, told Anadolu. But she cautioned that the next challenge will be securing guarantees to sustain any peace deal, calling it “the next big test.”

She stressed that beyond substance, the Washington meeting was about symbolism. “This was about optics and substance,” Magid said. “European leaders rushed to Washington to demonstrate unity with Zelenskyy and to be present for discussions directly tied to their core security concerns.”

Others were less convinced of progress. “There is absolutely zero substance in these talks, and the core of this is Donald Trump,” argued Ryhor Nizhnikau, senior fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

According to him, both Europeans and Ukraine are walking on eggshells to avoid provoking the US president. They want to show deference, treating him with “utmost respect and politeness” so as not to trigger him, he added.  

Ceasefire divide and security guarantees

Europe remains firm that a ceasefire must precede further negotiations. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared before the meeting: “I can’t imagine that the next meeting would take place without a ceasefire. So, let’s work on that and let’s try to put pressure on Russia.”

Trump, however, dismissed the need. “I don’t know that it’s necessary,” he said, downplaying one of Europe’s central demands.

Zelenskyy, who had previously been vocal in calling for a ceasefire, avoided repeating those demands this time.

For Nizhnikau, this reflected Trump’s shifting stance: “Trump now no longer insists on a ceasefire … but now he wants full peace, which is much less realistic than unrealistic ceasefire scenarios.”

“He actually is aware of that, and that is why he knows that he cannot end this war. And he needs to pretend that basically, it’s not his fault.”

While Trump hinted for the first time that Washington would provide “good protection” for Ukraine, he gave no specifics. Zelenskyy later announced a proposal to buy US weapons worth $90 billion, including advanced missile systems and aviation support, as part of its security guarantees.

NATO chief Rutte said that under UK and French leadership, a group of 30 countries – including Japan and Australia – has been working on developing long-term security guarantees.

When it comes to Trump, Nizhnikau believes European nations do not trust the US president’s word.

“How can you trust Trump’s word if he changes it every day or every week?” he asked.

“The gap between the US administration and European allies, the transatlantic rift, is deepening – and this is something (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is very happy to observe,” he added.

The stakes for Europe extend beyond Ukraine, he warned. “If Washington abandons its commitments to Ukraine, how can Europeans credibly believe in Article 5 protection for themselves within NATO?” Nizhnikau asked.

Magid echoed this concern, pointing to Russia’s strategy of exploiting divisions. “Russian aggression remains the biggest threat to both security and relations between the US and Europe,” she said.  

Land swaps and shifting blame

Monday’s high-level talks eventually shifted to borders and territory, with maps of Ukraine spread across the Oval Office table.

One map suggested 20% of Ukraine was under Russian occupation – a figure Zelenskyy rejected as “misleading.” He countered that Russian forces had seized only about 1% of the country’s territory during the first 1,000 days of full-scale war.

The issue of territory could be a major issue as Trump’s “real estate agent” mentality goes against what Ukraine and Europe want, according to Nizhnikau.

“Trump … thinks, ‘Why not have a land swap? But Ukraine can never accept this and the Europeans also understand this,” he said. “For Zelensky, it is a poisoned chalice – rejecting it makes him an easy target for Trump to blame for not taking a peace deal.”

Ultimately, analysts say Trump is positioning himself to shift responsibility. “Trump will try to sell that by abandoning Ukraine to a certain degree, he will still insist that it’s a European war,” Nizhnikau said.

“We do see a difference in approaches – differences not of perception, but of understanding of the problem – and Trump is clearly moving away from the European position.”