ISTANBUL

What began as confident pledges to end the Ukraine war “in one day” has, in a matter of months, evolved into one of the most volatile phases of US-Russia relations in recent history – complete with threats, tariffs, and the deployment of US nuclear submarines near Russian waters.

Since taking office, US President Donald Trump’s approach to Moscow has swung sharply between optimism and confrontation, shaped by early goodwill with Russian President Vladimir Putin, moments of apparent progress in negotiations, and sudden breaks triggered by deadly attacks.

The two sides have, however, managed to bridge what seemed to be a rapidly widening rift, setting the stage for a high-stakes summit in Alaska this Friday that could change the trajectory of global geopolitics.

Campaign confidence turns to early diplomacy

Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign was marked by repeated vows to resolve the Ukraine war in 24 hours if elected. “If I’m president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours,” he said during a May 2023 CNN Town Hall.

That confidence carried into his presidency. In early February, Trump praised his “good relationship” with Putin, claiming the Russian leader “wants to see people stop dying.”

Their first direct exchange on Feb. 12 – a 90-minute call – was described by Trump as “lengthy and highly productive,” with both sides agreeing to launch immediate negotiations.

By late February, Trump was telling reporters: “Talks are proceeding very well.” In March, the White House hailed the “huge upside” of an improved bilateral relationship, and Trump said “many elements of a Final Agreement have been agreed to, but much remains.”

Technical talks in Riyadh produced agreements on Black Sea navigation, including pledges to ensure safe passage, avoid the use of force, and prevent commercial vessels from being used for military purposes. Washington also agreed to help restore Moscow’s access to certain global markets as part of broader peace efforts.

Turning point: Russia’s largest aerial assault

Until mid-May, the tone was positive. After a two-hour phone call with Putin on May 19, Trump described the discussion as “excellent” and said “large-scale trade” between the US and Russia was possible if the war ended.

His optimism cracked days later when Russian forces launched their largest aerial assault of the war, firing more than 350 drones and missiles into Ukrainian cities, killing at least 12 people.

“I’ve known him a long time, always gotten along with him, but he’s sending rockets into cities and killing people,” Trump said on May 25.

The next day, Trump’s rhetoric hardened further: “I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY … needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers.”

Warning that Putin was “playing with fire,” Trump said continued missile strikes risked provoking consequences: “What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia.”

Despite the tense exchanges, Putin called Trump on June 14 to wish him a happy birthday. Assessing the conversation between the two, Trump said: “It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate peace.”

Escalating pressure: Tariffs and deadlines

By July, frustration was evident. Meeting NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office, Trump said: “I speak to Putin a lot about getting this thing done … And then missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city. The talk doesn’t mean anything.”

Trump announced plans for secondary tariffs and gave Russia a 50-day deadline for peace, later cutting that to “about 10 or 12 days” during a July 28 press conference with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland.

“I’m disappointed in President Putin, very disappointed in him,” Trump said, condemning Russia’s actions as “disgusting … It should be stopped. It’s a disgrace.”

Nuclear threats and tentative return to diplomacy

In August, tensions spiked after former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made remarks about Russia’s nuclear capabilities.

Trump responded by ordering “two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.” Days later, he confirmed the vessels “have arrived at where they need to be.”

Despite the military posturing, talks never fully collapsed. On Aug. 6, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in what the US president called a “highly productive” session with “Great progress.”

A White House official confirmed a potential Trump-Putin meeting “as soon as next week,” with Putin suggesting the UAE as “one of the suitable” venues.

Trump then announced that he would meet Putin on Aug. 15 in the US state of Alaska. The US president said he plans to review Putin’s proposal to end the Ukraine war, and that he would work to set up a sit-down between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents.