BELGRADE

Serbia warned Tuesday that its main oil refinery could halt operations within days as the United States reviews whether to renew an operating license for the Russian-owned NIS company, a move President Aleksandar Vucic said may carry sweeping economic and financial consequences.

Vucic said the NIS refinery in Pancevo has already shifted into reduced “hot circulation” mode and will shut down completely in four days unless the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issues a new waiver permitting continued operations despite sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.

He cautioned that the risk stretches beyond fuel supply, pointing to the possibility of secondary US sanctions on the National Bank of Serbia and the country’s commercial lenders.

“If sanctions are applied, we risk a complete halt of payment services, the collapse of card transactions, and disruption of credit issuance. This would endanger the central bank and every commercial bank,” he said.

Vucic said he received “verbal assurances” from US officials that no banking measures would be imposed before Monday, but emphasized that Serbia is now awaiting Washington’s decision.

“If the license is rejected, shortages will follow and the health system will be at risk. We secured supplies until at least Jan. 15, but after that everything depends on the decision of the Americans,” he said.

The president warned that a shutdown would disrupt supply chains, food distribution and even electricity production. “It is not only oil. It is the entire life of the Republic of Serbia,” he said.

Refinery nearing halt

The refinery is currently operating at a lower level in what Vucic described as a “silent walk” phase. Restarting full production would take at least two weeks -- “likely 20 days or more,” he said -- meaning the plant would remain offline through the New Year period.

Serbia has been subject to US sanctions targeting the Oil Industry of Serbia for 48 days, and remaining crude reserves are expected to last until Nov. 25.

Vucic also rejected claims that Serbia declined a stake in Greece’s Alexandroupolis energy terminal, saying he had offered participation but “it was never considered.” He added that Serbia will seek similar cooperation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, including potential involvement in the Paks II nuclear plant.

Government seeks stability with major suppliers

After an emergency meeting Monday, the Serbian government said citizens “have no reason for concern,” citing adequate quantities of all oil derivatives.

Energy Minister Dubravka Dedovic Handanovic met with representatives of major foreign suppliers -- Hungary’s MOL, Greece’s EKO and Austria’s OMV -- to coordinate stable distribution in the coming days.

Vucic said Serbia has “today and tomorrow” to secure the OFAC license. “It depends solely on the Americans,” he said.

The NIS refinery is majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom Neft, leaving Serbia’s energy sector vulnerable to Western sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. OFAC waivers have been required for continued refinery operations, and Belgrade has repeatedly sought extensions to avoid domestic supply disruptions. The refinery processes most of Serbia’s oil needs, and a prolonged shutdown could hit transport, industry and heating nationwide.