GENEVA 

Climate scientists in Switzerland no longer expect the world to limit warming to 1.5C (2.7F), the key target set under the Paris Agreement, said a Swissinfo survey published Friday.

On average, the researchers "believe the Earth will warm by around 2.5C (4.5F) by the end of this century," the survey found.

Nearly all the respondents, 95%, "do not believe it is realistic that the planet will meet the Paris Agreement's ideal target of limiting global warming to 1.5C."

Harald Bugmann, professor of forest ecology at ETH Zurich, called that figure "realistic." He said: "We've already passed 1.5C, and in the current geopolitical situation, there's little hope that the goals set earlier will be pursued."

"This leads to a serious delay – if the path of global climate mitigation is reactivated at all," Bugmann added.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2024 was "the first year when the average global temperature exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, reaching +1.55C (2.79F)."

Because Switzerland is warming twice as fast as the global average, "the country could experience an increase of 4-4.5C (7.2-8.1F) locally by the end of this century." More than 90% of glaciers are projected to disappear, threatening water supplies, agriculture, and hydropower, while hot days in cities such as Zurich and Geneva could reach or exceed 40C (104F).

Axel Michaelowa of the University of Zurich said: "The long-term issue of climate change will always be relegated to lower political salience if there are (multiple) crises deemed immediately relevant."