Retirees to make up nearly 30% of German population by 2038
Working-age population to continue declining, while more and more people to retire, and immigration may not be enough to close the gap, according to Destatis
BERLIN/ISTANBUL
Germany’s retirees will increase by at least 3.8 million, reaching 20.5 million by 2038, and accounting for upwards of 27% of the total population, according to the statistical office Destatis.
The recent report estimated that one in four people in Germany will be 67 or older within 10 years.
Retirees in Germany currently make up 20% of the population. The decline in the number of the working-age population is expected to pose major challenges to social security systems.
Destatis expects Germany’s population to be lower than today’s figure by 2070, reaching 74.7 million. The estimate takes into account moderate growth in birth rate, life expectancy, and net migration.
Only two out of some 27 forecast scenarios expect a slight population increase based on high net migration and a significantly higher birthrate. The projected population for Germany ranges from 63.9-86.5 million in 2070.
In 2022, Destatis expected the population figure to range from 70.2-94.4 million for 2070.
The working-age population (aged 20–66) will decline from the mid-2030s and onwards with the retirement of people born at the end of World War II and the arrival of younger generations — this gap won’t be closed by the projected net migration gains.
“In Germany, there are already 33 persons of retirement age for every 100 persons of working age. In 2070, this will have increased to 43 persons of retirement age in the best case scenario,” said Karsten Lummer, head of population at Destatis.
“In the worst case - with a consistently low birth rate and low net immigration - the old-age dependency ratio could be as high as 61, and therefore almost twice the rate it is today,” he added.
Meanwhile, the German population increased 0.1% to 83.6 million last year, led by immigration.
The net migration fell to 420,000 people last year, declining from 660,000 in 2023.
More people died than were born last year, as the number of deaths exceeded births, rising to 330,000 people.
Some 25.5 million people were aged 60 and over, making up 30.5% of the total population last year.
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