WARSAW

Poland’s population fell by 123,000 in 2024, the biggest drop among all EU member states for the second year running, Eurostat data released Tuesday show.

From Jan. 1, 2024 to Jan. 1, 2025, Poland’s population decreased from 36,620,970 to 36,497,495, down 123,475, Eurostat data show. The data for 2024 marked the sixth consecutive year that Poland’s population declined.

Most EU member states noted a population increase in 2024, with the bloc’s overall population growing by 1.07 million, 0.24%. Hungary (minus 45,125) and Italy (minus 37,053) ranked second and third, respectively, while the largest population increases were in Spain (458,289), France (292,567), and Germany (121,095).

“Since 2012, the negative natural change (more deaths than births) in the EU population has been outnumbered by the positive net migration,” Eurostat attributes said.

Poland has received a large number of Ukrainian refugees, but not enough to offset a negative demographic trend influenced by falling birth rates and high excess death numbers during the pandemic.

Poland’s state statistical agency GUS estimates that the country's population could fall to as low as 26.7 million by 2060, 27% lower than today.

Most EU member states, including Poland, in the former communist-ruled region have moved fast from developing to developed market status in the 21 years since their EU accession. This brings investment, but also some of the afflictions of Western economies: aging populations, labor shortages, fast-rising wages, and the need for immigration, particularly in industry, medicine, transportation, and IT.

Data from the EURopean Employment Services (EURES) show that almost all Central and Eastern European countries experienced a decline in population between 2010 and 2021. The dependency ratio — of the number of people of non-working age to the number of people of working age — has grown, according to Poland's social security office ZUS. The number of foreigners of working age will have to increase annually by 200,000 to 400,000 people in Poland, the office said.