The author is a Faculty Member at Joint War Institute of National Defense University, Türkiye.

ISTANBUL

Russian President Vladimir Putin's two-day state visit to New Delhi offers important clues about the shifting balance of the global order beyond the headlines. Far from a mere ceremonial gesture, the trip is widely seen as a symbolically and materially significant marker of deepening strategic cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi.

The enduring legacy of historical ties

India-Russia relations trace back to the Cold War era, when New Delhi pursued a policy of nonalignment. Even then, India leaned heavily on the Soviet Union for military hardware, technological assistance, and diplomatic backing.

The 1971 Indo Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation laid the foundation of this partnership. Moscow emerged as India's strongest supporter, particularly during the Bangladesh Liberation War, and for decades played a pivotal role in New Delhi's tensions with China, as India's leading arms supplier. Russia also repeatedly backed India on contentious issues at the UN, even when Western governments were hesitant or openly critical.

Even after the Soviet Union’s collapse, this legacy endured. Russia remained India's leading arms partner, supplying everything from aircraft and tanks to missiles and submarines. This long and deeply institutionalized relationship helps explain why New Delhi is unlikely to pivot away from Moscow easily, despite pressure from Washington or Brussels. The red-carpet welcome, the 21-cannon fire salute, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal attention during the visit reflect how steadily this partnership has been built over decades and how strongly pragmatism and material interests continue to shape international politics.

Economic lifeline and energy security

Since 2022, India has emerged as one of Russia's most important energy customers. Last year, 36% of India's crude oil was imported from Russia. Bilateral trade has reportedly surged to around six times pre-pandemic levels, reaching $68.7 billion.

Yet India has recently scaled back purchases, driven largely by pressure stemming from US sanctions and tariff policies, particularly under the Donald Trump administration. Against this backdrop, Putin's visit sought to reassure New Delhi on uninterrupted energy flows and to reinforce the broader economic relationship. For India, the stakes are clear: sustaining diversified supply lines and keeping domestic inflation under control. Modi's emphasis on civilian nuclear energy cooperation also signals an effort to anticipate and manage potential friction with Washington.

Defense and technological sovereignty

Russia once supplied 76% of India's weapons, but that share has now fallen to 36%. While India has diversified its procurement toward France, Israel, and the US, it has also accelerated efforts to expand domestic capacity.

Still, the logic of close cooperation with Moscow lies in what the West is unlikely to offer in full: meaningful technology transfer. The joint statement released during the visit points to a notable shift toward joint research, joint development, and joint production in advanced defense systems. It also highlights plans for co-manufacturing key components and potential exports to third countries.

At the heart of this renewed defense track is India's completion of a $2 billion deal to lease a nuclear attack submarine from Russia. Such submarines offer extended underwater endurance and powerful deterrent value, capabilities held by only a small number of states. The agreement thus reinforces defense ties at a moment when Washington is working to draw India further away from Moscow.

India's claim to strategic autonomy in a multipolar world

While benefiting from Russian energy, spare parts, and nuclear cooperation, India is also seeking to leverage US markets, capital, and support against China. New Delhi's foreign policy worldview rests on the idea that stability is best achieved through multiple partnerships rather than dependence on a single country. This approach forms the core of India's claim to strategic autonomy, rejecting dictates from external powers, especially the West, on how to conduct its independent foreign policy.

In this context, the larger strategic picture behind the visit reflects an effort to highlight three key trends:

Russia is not isolated: By sustaining a major energy and defense relationship with one of the world's most populous countries, Russia aims to demonstrate that it is not fully isolated, contrary to Western narratives.

India as a rising power center: By building a multi-vector foreign policy approach that mirrors the behavior of major powers, India seeks to prove that it has become a power center in its own right.

China's watchful eye: Beijing is uneasy that India's continued ties with Russia prevent Moscow from becoming overly dependent on China. In addition, Russia's transfer of sensitive military systems to India and the possibility of closer India-US relations heighten Chinese concerns, since these dynamics could offset China’s regional advantages.

Future challenges

The future of the relationship seems likely to hinge on three major challenges involving the US and China.

If Washington continues its punitive approach through tariff hikes, India may be pushed to further strengthen its ties with Moscow. A shift could occur if the US offers incentives such as greater market access, technology partnerships, or defense co-production to balance Russia’s proposals.

On the other hand, Russian technology transfer is also a significant challenge. Especially expanded cooperation in maritime and missile domains could have a major impact on the Indo-Pacific balance. This is the area China will likely watch with greatest concern and the one India most wants to broaden.

Meanwhile, India’s balancing capacity is also critical in terms of global equilibrium. As the world divides into blocs, the question of whether India’s historically envisioned "third way" remains viable will retain its importance. Deepening ties with Moscow while negotiating major agreements with Washington is a risky balancing act, but India appears intent on sustaining this indispensable swing state role.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.