- ‘The question now is whether the Netherlands can re-establish itself as a reliable EU partner after years of instability,’ says Elizabeth Kuiper of the European Policy Center

- A center-right alignment is the most likely outcome, but backdoor influence from far-right ideologies could still bleed into policy, warns DENK party lawmaker Dogukan Ergin

BRUSSELS 

The Netherlands has entered another delicate round of coalition negotiations, as three center and center-right parties begin talks to form a new government after one of the tightest elections in recent years.

The outcome, analysts say, will determine whether the country can restore its reputation as a stable and reliable EU partner after years of political turbulence.

The Oct. 29 snap election produced a fragmented result: the centrist Democrats 66 (D66) and Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV each won 26 seats in the 150-seat parliament. D66 delivered the biggest upset, gaining more than 10% compared to the previous election, while the anti-Islam PVV saw its support drop by about 7%.

In early December, government negotiator Sybrand van Haersma Buma announced that D66, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDA), and the liberal VVD would begin coalition discussions.

Together they hold 66 seats – short of a majority – leading negotiators to explore either a minority government or a larger majority coalition that would include a fourth party.

The Netherlands is no stranger to protracted talks and fragile governments. Recent years have seen several Cabinets fall prematurely, while disputes over migration, climate rules, and EU policies strained its standing in Brussels.

Elizabeth Kuiper, associate director at the Brussels-based European Policy Center, said the election result reflected a broader voter recalibration after years of instability.

“The unexpected loss of nearly a third of Wilders’ voters after a notably subdued campaign, combined with the credibility damage inflicted by the chaotic Schoof Cabinet, was not anticipated,” she told Anadolu. The Schoof Cabinet, which took over in July 2024 under Prime Minister Dick Schoof, was a fragile four-party coalition formed after the 2023 election.

It collapsed less than a year later in June 2025, when the PVV withdrew its support over disputes on migration policy. Schoof submitted the government’s resignation but continues to serve as caretaker prime minister.

While negotiations are underway, Kuiper said the final shape of the government remains unclear. “The question now is whether the Netherlands can re-establish itself as a reliable EU partner after years of instability.”

That uncertainty has been amplified by the country’s recent record: four different migration ministers in one year, and stalled negotiations in Brussels on asylum reform and environmental policies. These disruptions have chipped away at the Netherlands’ reputation as a predictable and constructive EU member.

Kuiper noted that parties are now navigating shifting priorities within both domestic politics and Europe, from housing shortages and energy policy to rising defense commitments.

Far-right influence growing

For DENK lawmaker Dogukan Ergin, who was re-elected in October, the decision to exclude far-right parties from initial coalition talks marks a short-term victory for minorities. But he warned that the broader trajectory is troubling.

Although Wilders’ PVV and the VVD hold steady bases of support, Ergin pointed to significant gains made by other far-right and radical-right parties.

“While some far-right parties lost seats … two other parties with similar ideologies saw substantial gains, increasing from 3 to 7 and 1 to 9 seats, respectively,” he said, referring to the Forum for Democracy and the JA21 parties.

“In the short term, the inclusion of far-right parties in government has been avoided. However, in the long term, the far-right and radical-right bloc is growing, which is concerning for the future of minorities in this country.”

On coalition talks, Ergin said a center-right alignment is the most likely outcome, but warned that backdoor influence from far-right ideologies could still bleed into policy.

“DENK will not join any coalition with parties that normalize far-right ideas,” he emphasized. “However, we are ready to cooperate on other issues, including tackling poverty, promoting equal rights, applying sanctions against Israel.”

Ergin also highlighted rising hostility toward minority politicians. “During the last three weeks of the election campaign, I personally received death threats and hate messages,” he said.

Public opinion shift

Perhaps the most notable change, Ergin said, is in Dutch public attitudes toward international issues.

“In the past, polls showed that up to 93% of Dutch voters supported Israel unconditionally. In the latest polls, over 65% now believe the Netherlands should impose sanctions on Israel. This signals a pivotal moment in Dutch politics,” he said.

This shift, he argued, will shape the political space of any future government.

“Future governments will no longer be able to declare or justify unconditional support for Israel to the public in this country. We are at a turning point,” he added.

Despite a temporary check on far-right entry into government, Ergin warned that the long-term picture remains unstable.

“The country needs a stable government, but these political dynamics make it challenging ... We may still see headlines about a government collapse or difficulties in forming coalitions,” he said.